Airline industry and travel trends evolve over time. Coming out of the pandemic, there are few words airline executives have used more than “premium” and “Europe” when it comes to describing where demand is strongest. In recent years, summer travel to Europe has been all the rage, and the growth opportunities almost seem endless. However, is that really the case, or how will this aspect of the industry evolve over the coming years?
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Americans are traveling to Europe at an unprecedented rate
I don’t want to suggest that Europe was some uncharted continent for Americans before the pandemic (of course it wasn’t). However, there’s no denying that the number of Americans traveling to Europe, plus the frequency with which they travel to Europe, has increased considerably over the years.
People who may have traveled internationally very little before the pandemic are largely now making an annual trip to Europe. And even beyond that, you have the trend of people taking multiple summer trips to Europe. Americans are going to Europe in summer like New Yorkers go to the Hamptons (if they even go there anymore… or do they just meet in Saint-Tropez now?).
What’s driving this growth in demand for travel to Europe? The way I view it, there are a few primary factors:
- Coming out of the pandemic, a lot of people had more flexibility with where they could work from, and also started valuing travel and experiences more than before, realizing how easily that “freedom” can be taken away
- Social media sort of gives people the ultimate FOMO, and people feel like they need to be seen in Europe to even keep up anymore
- Generationally, a lot of younger people are struggling to save meaningfully, given how expensive life has become, so enjoying nice and memorable experiences has become one way for people to “treat themselves”
Look, I understand the interest in Europe, as it’s an incredible continent with a lot to offer, from endless history, to amazing food, to gorgeous landscape. But there’s no denying that the current reality of traveling to Europe in July isn’t quite the dream it’s made out to me. So much of Europe has become outrageously expensive over peak months, and is uncomfortably crowded. Furthermore, many of the most popular places are also super hot (temperature wise). And that says nothing of the number of places that are trying to increasingly restrict tourism (through anti-tourism protests, entry fees, etc.).
But I think this is also where social media comes into play. You see these beautiful pictures and videos of Santorini, which are conveniently framed to leave out the 10,000 people walking through Oia at any given point. People see that online and then want to go, not realizing what the experience is really like. And those posting the content of course have an incentive to make it look as dreamy as possible.
Let me of course acknowledge that I’m painting with a very broad brush here. But that’s ultimately because Americans are really concentrated with where in Europe they go — we’re talking places like France, Greece, Italy, and Spain. There are of course lots of better value and less crowded places to go in Europe (ranging from Albania to Germany), but that doesn’t mean that tourists are flocking there… yet.
How will European travel trends evolve?
The above brings me to my question — is the amount of demand among Americans for traveling to Europe here to stay forever, or will we slowly start to see a decline over time, at least in the peak of summer? For the past several years, it has seemed like airlines can do absolutely no wrong when it comes to adding flights to Europe.
However, recently we learned that Delta’s worst performing region in the third quarter (overlapping with the traditional summer) was Europe, with July and August not being the peak months they once were. This comes down to a variety of factors, with the primary one being that the European travel season for Americans has become much longer — those with kids in school are increasingly traveling in June, while those without kids are increasingly traveling in the spring and fall (April through May, and September through October).
I could be wrong, but I do think we’re eventually going to a slowing in the growth to the current regions in Europe that are so popular with Americans. To be clear, I’m not suggesting they’ll suddenly not be popular anymore, but between crowding, heat, and affordability issues, I think something has to eventually give.
What could that look like?
- I think over the next decade, the single biggest European travel trend we’ll see among Americans is Europe travel shifting further north, where the weather is much better in summer; however, the luxury tourism infrastructure could use a bit of help there
- Domestic travel in the United States has been weak in summer in recent years, and I do think we’ll see that make more of a comeback, including to Hawaii (which was super hot right after the pandemic, but has cooled a bit)
- I think the challenge is that there are limited regions outside of Europe (with the exception of places like Japan) where the average American is super comfortable traveling; I don’t think we’re going to see widespread China tourism anytime soon, and I think much of South America (largely wrongly) has the reputation of being too dangerous
- It’s interesting to me how Eastern Europe hasn’t proven as popular as some airlines were hoping for; you’d think there would be a lot more demand for places like Budapest and Prague, but it hasn’t really turned out that way
Bottom line
Americans have always enjoyed traveling to Europe in summer, but this trend has been taken to the next level in recent years, post-pandemic. It does seem like this demand may finally start to plateau, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it shift a bit.
Personally, I don’t see the whole trend of everyone always traveling to southern Europe being permanent, and I think we’ll start to see some summer shifts. Some people may travel further north, some further east, and some may vacation closer to home.
Regardless, the current Europe demand patterns are certainly a major part of the airline route planning puzzle, so it’s something to watch.
How do you see American travel to Europe evolving in the coming years?
Alternative explanation:
1) USD-EUR has been between 1 and 1.2 recently (vs as bad as 1.6 years ago) + a bit less inflation in Europe last five years = Europe is a relative bargain compared to other travel destinations.
2) US wages are very high and the economy has been strong for years. It's not "poor people who can't get by treating themselves" but literally "30 year olds in the US, for all...
Alternative explanation:
1) USD-EUR has been between 1 and 1.2 recently (vs as bad as 1.6 years ago) + a bit less inflation in Europe last five years = Europe is a relative bargain compared to other travel destinations.
2) US wages are very high and the economy has been strong for years. It's not "poor people who can't get by treating themselves" but literally "30 year olds in the US, for all the whining on Reddit, have never been richer so can afford to go to Europe".
3) Instagram, as Ben notes. In less Instagram-famous but stlil great places, I'm seeing basically no Americans (or Indians, or Chinese, or Russians...)
4) A few other popular destinations have declined in popularity: tourism to China is way off the peak, same with Hong Kong, same with Russia, same with Israel.
It's good that they are discovering Europe, but please don't spoil what is not spoilt yet by what you define as luxury especially northern Europe, aka Scandinavian countries, there's no need to such show of luxury and I do hope that these Scandinavian countries will not bend to these needs.. keep North Europe free from these unnecessary "social pollution"...it is just like Trump trying to take over Greenland...
The appeal of Europe is undeniable. More civil than the United States. Real culture. Not pop and pulp culture. Culture wars don't dominate every slice of daily life. Better quality of life in many measures. History that is interesting and not underscored by bellicose, obnoxious patriotism. Better food. Better transportation. More humanity.
Americans will cease to flock to Europe if their economy tanks.
Bodo
Well, you can't blame Americans for wanting to see what it's like to live in a civilized place, even if it's for just a few days.
Absolutely a major factor for me
Robbie, thank you so much for the grin. I would give you a Gold Star as well as more ‘helpful’ ticks if it were possible.
AF/KLM certainly making a considered decision to increase their ownership stake in SAS to 60%. Finnair a great oneworld partner and pivoted as best as it could given its flight routing... if a few years from now things resolve themselves with Russia (a big if, but who knows), could unlock much more for those airlines. With southern Europe feeling the heat, wouldn't be crazy for Scandinavia/Northern Europe to start seeing serious summer crowds a few years from now.
The core issue of the push to Europe is affordability.
The USA is not affordable at all. I can get a nice hotel room with an amazing breakfast in London for less than a crappy holiday inn express by the freeway in Modesto CA. Let alone in major usa city centers.
Until the USA gets real about the costs here. Even we will go overseas. For less. That’s what happened in Hawaii.
I agree with Hawaii not being worth what they charge, but London is wildly expensive. I would love to learn about the London properties that are cheaper than Modesto. When traveling with my family I struggle to find a single property for less than $950 a night in central London.
Huh? Are you seriously only looking at the most expensive properties in London? There are many dozens(hundreds?) of hotels in central London for under half that at any time of the year. And that is even with the poor exchange rate right now compared to the past 4 years.
London is one of the most expensive hotel cities on the planet. You could not have picked a worse example city
In Germany every media outlet was reporting that travel would shift to the north post pandemic as climate change would make the summer unbearable in the South and people would prefer colder climate and less crowded places. But this has not materialized and Germans are still going to the Mediterranean more often than before.
I don‘t think that northern Europe will become significantly more popular in the future. Summer is just synonymous with Italy,...
In Germany every media outlet was reporting that travel would shift to the north post pandemic as climate change would make the summer unbearable in the South and people would prefer colder climate and less crowded places. But this has not materialized and Germans are still going to the Mediterranean more often than before.
I don‘t think that northern Europe will become significantly more popular in the future. Summer is just synonymous with Italy, Greece and Ibiza. The German coast is just not reliably warm enough to enjoy a summer holiday. And even for us in Germany we rather drive to Northern italy than to Denmark if we want a beach vacation.
I could see travel shifting within the mediterranean Sea away from the hotspots to less visited places but it will certainly remain the top destination.
Albania better value? I'd agree on cheaper price, but better value?
On another note, I live on the French Riviera and my advise to Americans would be: if you can, come in June or in September. No crowds, good weather, reasonable prices for hotels, and you're likely to get better service as there are fewer people
Europe is actually not that expensive compared to US domestic travel.
Agreed. We spend a month in the med every summer and prices are so much lower than the US. If one is able to visit these summer spots in Europe during the shoulder season, then it gets even more affordable while still being able to enjoy nice weather.
I think non-China, Asia tourism is growing tbh. If you look at 2024 numbers, Korea actually saw a significant leap over pre-pandemic numbers from the US, 2019 was only 1M, 2024 was 1.3M, and 2025 is expected to hit 1.5M, pretty significant numbers.
The same is true for Taiwan which saw nearly a 10% leap in 2024 vs 2019 numbers, and is only likely to increase further with the increase in connections and capacity, and...
I think non-China, Asia tourism is growing tbh. If you look at 2024 numbers, Korea actually saw a significant leap over pre-pandemic numbers from the US, 2019 was only 1M, 2024 was 1.3M, and 2025 is expected to hit 1.5M, pretty significant numbers.
The same is true for Taiwan which saw nearly a 10% leap in 2024 vs 2019 numbers, and is only likely to increase further with the increase in connections and capacity, and is projected to grow another 10% in 2025.
Obviously, Asia numbers pale in comparison to the volume of Europe visitors, but this is clearly a lucrative and growing market. United clearly has a first mover advantage with a robust TPAC network
part of the reason Americans prefer Europe to E. Asia is because English is pretty widely spoken in Europe and less so in non-English speaking countries of Asia.
Also, I'm not sure your numbers are reflective of local traffic as much as an increase in connecting traffic over Korea and Taiwan - both are increasing, though.
And United wasn't really the first mover to E. Asia; they replaced NW which held the title of...
part of the reason Americans prefer Europe to E. Asia is because English is pretty widely spoken in Europe and less so in non-English speaking countries of Asia.
Also, I'm not sure your numbers are reflective of local traffic as much as an increase in connecting traffic over Korea and Taiwan - both are increasing, though.
And United wasn't really the first mover to E. Asia; they replaced NW which held the title of largest TPAC airline and then DL which held the title for a few years; UA jumped in but just broke even flying the Pacific pre-covid.
and the combination of KE and OZ with the DL JV and DL's own growth as the 35Ks arrive (DL execs supposedly recently said that LAX-SIN will launch on the 35K) means that DL will likely end up closer to 75% of UA's size across the Pacific rather than the 50% it is now. Both are now profitable but DL has the fleet advantage for at least the next five years.
Because Americans go where their flag carriers go, the chances are high that DL and UA will open up and grow markets to Asia just as took place over the past 20 years esp. with the 767 over the Atlantic.
These are visitor numbers from US passport holders. Connecting wouldn't matter here.
A big reason for the surge in tourism is that the stock market is doing well. There is abundant data to show that middle age people with decent nest eggs are tapping into it to travel while they can; it isn't a given that people can or will want to travel later into life.
and DL did say that October is becoming one of the best months for TATL because it is after many of...
A big reason for the surge in tourism is that the stock market is doing well. There is abundant data to show that middle age people with decent nest eggs are tapping into it to travel while they can; it isn't a given that people can or will want to travel later into life.
and DL did say that October is becoming one of the best months for TATL because it is after many of the summer crowds have left and when weather is better.
DL also said that its international and domestic networks are generating comparable levels of profitability; even though an analyst asked, they would not break that down into geographies but DOT data does indicate that all of DL's global regions are holding their own with the Pacific seeing the biggest turnaround in profits post-pandemic not just for DL but also for UA.
the great thing about airplanes is that they can be pointed in different directions depending on changes in demand. If southern Europe tourism trails off, something will replace it. and international travel is still growing including to/from the US so those that are traveling for business or to visit friends and family will continue to grow faster than domestic travel
Not just an American theme. In Korea you'll see many more Koreans traveling abroad these past few years compared to decades past
The social media thing can’t be stressed enough. It rules the world now for better or worse
Europe is also just close and it’s an easy flight from eastern US. Trust me if Asia were closer from the east coast I’d go there multiple times per year
Then let the people who need to be "influenced" get influenced to go to Europe in the summer and miss out on all the amazing places on offer around the world.
Americans all run to London, Paris, Rome, and Athens. Oh, they are missing some gems in Riga, Vilnius, Krakow, Berlin, Dusseldorf, Stockholm... and the list goes on. The more "adventurous" Americans will creep over to Prague and Vienna, perhaps Barcelona and Amsterdam as one-offs......
Then let the people who need to be "influenced" get influenced to go to Europe in the summer and miss out on all the amazing places on offer around the world.
Americans all run to London, Paris, Rome, and Athens. Oh, they are missing some gems in Riga, Vilnius, Krakow, Berlin, Dusseldorf, Stockholm... and the list goes on. The more "adventurous" Americans will creep over to Prague and Vienna, perhaps Barcelona and Amsterdam as one-offs... oh well, missing out on so, so much.
The run to London, the Cotswolds, and crappy Stonehenge (biggest waste of money - view it from the motorway) — yet, too afraid to venture to Egypt and Turkey in massive numbers, to see TRUE ancient relics. Of course, stay in the USA and visit Utah, which has amazing giant melted buildings all over the national parks, that if your eyes see it, it see's it ;-)
Why would you wish to go to where everyone else has shown you, instead of researching what's on offer that may be a better fit?
Americans have had decades to be educated on international travel... I have little patience for this. The great American travelers who know, know! The rest of the world is quite aware.
The Trump fascist recession we’re in has already started impacting subprime auto loans and the housing market; travel is not protected from this.