It has been an absolutely wild several weeks in the Middle East, as the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran, which took out some top Iranian officials. In response, Iran launched drone attacks on nearby countries, including targeting airports, hotels, and more.
Continue reading: Will Gulf Airlines Make A Full Recovery From Iran Attacks? If So, When?
Share your questions, experiences, and thoughts below.
The biggest challenge these carriers will have in the short term is that most major travel insurance providers will not cover flights through Dubai, Doha and other major hubs in the region. So passengers who are willing to assume the risk of flying through the hubs in transit themselves are being forced to choose alternative flights, otherwise their entire policy covering health, etc.. at their destination is voided.
Will airlines from the Gulf be able to bounce back after the United States ( and its lapdog Israel )launched a war, while "Mango Mussolini" goes around offending and alienating all (former) allies? Now he’s talking about constructing a 300-meter-tall “library” in Miami complete with a golden statue of himself, plus a triumphal arch in Washington, D.C., and spending millions on a haphazard ballroom project in the White House, which he’s steadily altering to match his own preferences (bordello style) and going so far as to rename airports after himself. Then you have him taking advice from that fruitcake Paula White. The rest of the world will hopefully bounce back without the USA.
To me it isn't about safety, but more logistical issues with fairly frequent airport closures and what not due to attacks. Easier to just avoid the drama for the foreseeable future.
You have to wonder what this means for the A380. Will the ME3 shed their A380s at a much faster rate? While Emirates will still continue to invest in their fleet of A380s, would they shed their fleet by a significant percentage?
Seeing drones over Dubai and crashing somewhere random is certainly not good optics and it's not something you rarely if ever see at all.
I wonder how this impacts the region at least in the medium-term especially with tourism and business travel.
I understand the comparison with the pandemic, although arguably at some point (say, late 2022), everybody could declare the pandemic as over.
We may see a ceasefire at some point, but with the Mollah and other terror groups still around, will we ever be able to say the war is over?
You seem to have a lot things to say, though I'm struggling to see the connection with Ben's article.
I just booked a flight from LHR to SIN on Etihad in June- they have some very good deals going at the moment for obvious reasons. I'm travelling solo, and in my view the biggest risk is disruption/getting stranded if the situation escalates.
good question but the answer is less about safety or its perception in the Middle East countries that host massive airline hubs but about the cost of fuel and the ability of the Middle East countries to move it.
Revenue for Middle East countries has fallen dramatically as the Strait of Hormuz has been nearly completely closed for over a month. Energy experts say that the impact of disruptions of crude and refined products as well as gas will persist well beyond the opening of the Strait which is far from assured anytime in the near future. Airlines that are not subsidized by countries that are energy exporters will see profits plunge.
While the ME countries will subsidize their airlines to get traffic moving when hostilities cease, this conflict produced a rift between Iran and other Arab neighbors that has never happened on this scale before.
European airlines are already taking advantage of the reduction in competition to overfly Gulf hubs; this all comes at a time when India - which heavily depends on Gulf airlines for international air service - is trying to grow direct service to the rest of the world.
High fuel prices threaten to crush air traffic demand which will hurt Middle East airlines; Asian economies could face the biggest medium and long term impact since they are much more dependent on oil that flows through the Strait while the Americas are largely independent of direct fuel consumption via the Strait. Add in that Europe, other Middle East and Asian countries will likely bear the cost of keeping the Strait open and it will take a long time before a new normal occurs.
Hi Ben,
I understand this is not a political news platform, but that does not excuse abandoning the most basic standards of honesty in your reporting, analysis, or even headlining.
“Will Gulf Airlines Make A Full Recovery From Iran Attacks? If So, When?” is an exceptionally poor piece of framing. I am not a fan of the Iranian regime, nor of the depravity of the Netanyahu–Trump alliance, but describing this simply as “Iran attacks” is a misleading distortion that leaves readers with a politically convenient impression.
I can see that you provided context at the beginning of the piece, but a headline does not need to be ideological. It does, however, need to be honest. A little humility, a little humanity, and a little more respect for factual context would have made for a far better headline.
correct.
This is a cost and fuel availability problem which is not being felt the same around the world on top of war which is affecting some airlines but certainly not others. Fuel cost increases are not affecting all airlines equally.
This is the ME3's 9/11 and they will recover but, whether they deny saying it or not, they don't want to see this chapter of history ever repeated which means eliminating all threats now and as far as can be seen into the future
You're deluding yourself if you think any war in the Middle East will end in "a few weeks". ME3 will be dead for years.
I think the ME3 will struggle to (maybe ever?) regain the Western premium leisure market. I'm talking cashed-up retirees who do a big trip once or twice a year, are happy to pay for comfort and quality and aren't too bothered about price, or points and miles.
They have long memories and will avoid these airlines "just to be on the safe side", whether that is rational or not.
That should hopefully mean better award availability for those who are happy to fly the ME3!
Reminds me of all the comments a few years ago that travel will never recover after Covid. It recovered almost immediately.
As long as leisure passengers can save US $1 or more on a ticket, then yes, the ME3 will make a full recovery based on pricing power alone. The question with an as-yet unknown answer is "When will this war of choice (with no discernable reason or point, other than profit) end, and what will the 'new normal' look like?"
With the mentally dilapidated fat orange Nazi losing interest, the conflict may end sooner than later.
If there's lasting impact, it's probably positive for the A380s staying around, paradoxically.
If Hormuz remains closed (or reopens with the Iranians getting an effective preferred equity stake in the Gulf hydrocarbon export business, which is probably the most likely TACO result), the airlines in the region are going to be expected to return capital to the shareholders to make up the difference (the airlines are partially hedges against hydrocarbon price declines, after all (the inverse of UA's IAH hub)).
Deferring deliveries and cancelling orders isn't far away (probably low single digit weeks from seeing deliveries and deployment of new products deferred to 2028 (EK game-changer F expansion may end up more delayed than Allegris...)). We'll probably see the likes of EK and EY offering fantastic bonuses for transferring/buying points before the rugpull of an epic devaluation (QR being in the Avios ecosystem means different considerations). And if we get into, say, September without regime change in Tehran, we may well start to see asset sales (both planes and things like equity stakes in other airlines).
If the ME3 start selling planes to raise cash for their regimes, the 350s, 787s, 321s, 737s, and 777s (probably in that order) will get a good price. The 380s? Not so much, so they'll stay around.
I resemble your remark and I have to say, that for me, I'll still fly Qatar going forward. I actually have a ticket already booked to JNB at the end of this month and I have no qualms about flying it. Now, I do hope that some others do hold off for a while as maybe there'll be some good deals to had for a short while.
UAE deserves this for committing a genocide in Sudan. And Israel deserves everything it gets (and more) for genocide in Gaza, apartheid for 80 years and capital punishment laws celebrated by Ben Gvir as discriminatory as that seen in 1939 Germany.
No sympathy for these countries and The United States for being cucks for orange Mussolini and the monstrous Epstein.
I remember those doom predictions. The consensus was that business travel was practically over for good with all business meetings and transactions now done via zoom. Lol, leisure and business travel has never been bigger.
I'm waiting for the moment when I'm finally gonna be able to try Emirates business class following the drop in demand but surprisingly the fares are still quite high so I imagine the sales are at least half decent. As you say, it's more about optics than a real danger and since Emirates mostly lives off Asians and continental Europeans, maybe they're not gonna have a whole lot of issues going forward.
The headline is perfectly correct - the issue ME3 airlines have are attacks from Iran. Neither US nor Israel are bombing Dubai, Abu Dhabi or Doha.
No time soon. Drones and missiles, any-time. Yet, no Iron dome, or effective countermeasures. GCCs should look to the Israelis and Ukrainians for how to defend themselves. USA is not defending our allies (except Israel) over there. Sadly, the ‘dream’ of a safe Dubai, Doha, etc. is gone for a while.
Lower demand, because of the risk and chaos. But, yes, higher prices because of increasing fuel costs and less supply because not operating at full capacity yet (and likely not for a while.) Hope you get to try sometime soon, safely, regardless.
Tourism will somewhat recover as the region has a lot to offer: great beaches, deserts, attractions, entertainment, hotels, food, transportation, shopping, no crime, affordability, service etc - everything travelers want. No other region in the world meets all those criteria with such high marks. Now, all of that is null and void if tourists fear they will be killed by a drone or a missile. Those images of the hotels and airports on fire after being hit are powerful and indelible. The image and feeling of safety and insecurity are forever shattered and that will be enough to keep a lot of families away for good.
The ME3 are toast if Trump and his Zionist masters escalate further with attacks on civilian infrastructure (a war crime), Iran will respond in kind rendering the Gulf monarchies uninhabitable. They and Israel rely on 40-90% of water from desalination plants. These can easily be taken out. The only way this ends is with Israeli and US capitulation. Nobody has 2 million troops to invade and subdue Iran.
You would think there would fare and award deals and promotions but so far nothing.
Leisure travel, premium leisure travel in particular, has seen a massive recovery and is way above pre-COVID levels. You are partially incorrect, however, and almost everywhere globally business travel remains below pre-COVID levels.
Icarus, thinks that it’s the 1st of April and the post was its attempt at an April Fool’s joke …. will you tell it or should I? …. The joke is definitely on Icarus …. 🙂
It is neither a military operation nor Iran attacks (response is a better diction). It is a war of choice of Netanyahu and US government since 1979 but only the most incompetent US president decided to launch a war, under the illusion that Iran is Venezuela. I always questioned, until last year, why the US and Israel allowed Khomenei ascended to power in 1979, considering the US "regime change" foreign policy in all non-European countries since post WWII and "Greater Israel" policy since its statehood. Western media, especially corporate news media, mostly get wrong when the news involves non-western events and histories.
ME airlines will have to adjust their business operations according to what Israel and US changing objectives are, without long term planning. There is a remote chance that Saudi Arabia will complete its fantasy world of Neom city, near the Red Sea, in our lifetime. Now, all six Gulf states will devote much more revenues, as well as Europe, into military buildup as long as Israel and the US continue waging wars in muslim countries in ME and Africa. We ignore the impacts this war has on third world countries that suffer the most without playing a role in the war. Now, news begin to justify Iran targets in the Gulf ---simply because US military staff have abandoned their bases and sought shelter in hotels and offices. Oman incurred the least damages because it hosts no US military base and wants nothing to do with war. We do not know the actual extent of fatalities and damages because DoD refuses to release records. However, it was reported that the injured and dead military personnel have reached to 750. Same as all Gulf governments. The ME continues to be an extremely volatile region much more so now. Corporate businesses will move their operations outside the region as well.
Exactly. The risk of safety issues is very small (quite honestly I think you are more likely to die due to US ATC issues currently although I know a lot of US residents with their heads in the sand will deny this!). The real problem is flights have an unacceptably high risk of being cancelled and leaving you stuck. Etihad in particular is appalling in terms of IRROPS handling and I’m not sure I’d arrange a connection via AUH even if it were free right now.
Well it's been 6 years since Covid and we are not fully recovered. My home airport is just about at 2019 passenger levels however air traffic controllers and pilot shortages and air craft deliveries are still problems from the pandemic.
The war will cause huge problems for years to come!
Flying through Dubai is like going through a snow storm blizzard. Some flights may go but if you have business meetings or non-cancelable plans it won't be a reliable connection for years not months is my prediction.
On the fence now. Going to SE Asia in < 2 weeks and changed it to TPAC as my concern was getting stuck in transit and having to take more time off work.
But will see how things play out in the new few months for future trips.
"Now, let me say that personally I’d still feel comfortable traveling to Dubai, etc."
Even with your two kids?
i think the real challenge they're going to have is US/IL continuing to ramp up attacks on civilian infra like bridges/schools/hospitals/etc. and putting those targets on the map for Iran around the region
I know this is something Lucky already addressed in previous articles, but it's kind of crazy to me that he still goes to so many countries with such iffy human rights records. If I was gay I don't know if I could be as brave as he is
Etihad seem to be most aggresive in offering deals right now. Qatar and Emirates haven't shifted too much but I keep seeing Etihad options at 1k-1.5k lower than I would expect.
They do also have a habit of keeping really tight connections though, so I'm not really sure how much i would trust flying on them
One of the gayest places I've ever lived. What's written and on paper is very different that what happens in real life on the ground. I had a very fulfilling life there and know several gay couples who've lived in the UAE for a long time and have no plans to leave.
I appreciate the datapoint. It can be hard to know the reality of a place without visiting it, but if there are narratives (true or false) of potential dangers from visiting that place it can be hard to even visit and give it a chance.
Its probably too early to tell because we don't know what the end state will be. I can see arguments that Turkish, Air India (probably don't have the fleet right now) and Singapore (to extent possible but on the wrong side of India) should use this as an opportunity to more aggressively pursue that super-connecting hub role that DBX/DOH have played.
If I was QR, I would probably double down on the investment in Oman Air and try to make Muscat a secondary hub. I realize it doesn't meet the country's strategic objectives, but wouldn't hurt to build up that airport's capacity to handle more traffic. Plus Oman is just a better destination compared to Qatar.
I believe the key element is how the long the war continues. Unless the current volatility remains in the headlines for an extended period (in which case all bets would be off as to legacy impacts), most consumers will continue to be driven by economic and efficiency factors. However, if the pandemic provides any guidance at all, the longer the war continues, the more likely it is that the resurgence is slower to occur and does not exactly mimic prewar travel patterns. So, will demand ultimately return? The answer is likely yes (with the qualifier as noted above) . Will it be exactly the same as before? I am guessing not.
Qatar gifting a 747 to Trump doesn’t seem to have worked out all that well for them.
Ben, the airports are actively being attacked with drones. DXB had its fuel depot blown up. These are not "incredibly safe" destinations. I feel like this whole thing is being sanewashed. The world is not what it was, the region isn't what it was, and on the advice of our insurance carrier we're not booking anyone to or through there. Maybe things will improve at some point, but that point isn't now, and this could go on for years. Don't you remember Iraq?
The problem is that unless Hormuz reopens soon, QR will likely begin unwinding its investments.
This. Ben saying he would travel to Dubai right now while the airport is operating on risky ground and regularly being shut for hours without warning, even sustaining direct impact from projectiles, is giving out of touch vibes.
@betterbub, to be fair I visited the UAE, Qatar and Oman in December as a solo gay man and had zero sketchy situations. Our western idea of "gayday" is really not the same over there, nobody would ever assume you are gay unless you are like dressed really effeminate or doing something overt in public. Now if I had a partner, not certain if I'd go. With kids, hell no, not worth it.
Ben, I think you’re being exceedingly naive about the situation in the UAE right now. There’s a massive suppression operation going on that is hiding the extent of damage and casualties. People are getting locked up for ‘spreading rumours’
It is a good ways off but I have a flight booked in Qatar J next February, then flying to Dubai and leaving from Abu Dhabi for Delhi so flying Qatar and Etihad. If this was next week (or even within the next month) I'd likely cancel but fully expect things to be resolved by my flights. I'm really looking forward to spending a week between Doha, Dubai and Abu Dhabi to experience the area before heading on to India.
We are flush retirees too. Pre-retirement, minimal int’l travel and always Y. Now, one or two signature trips annually - usually J. No ME3 for us. We leaned no before Iran War; hard no now. Just booked SE Asian trip for next winter from east coast. JA and CX are so good. Why mess with the Middle East and it’s never-ending complexities?
Tim Dunn walks into a bar at the Emirates First Class Lounge in Dubai.
The bartender, wearing a pristine gold-trimmed vest, slides him a glass of vintage Dom Pérignon and says, "Welcome, Mr. Dunn. Please enjoy this complimentary $500 bottle of champagne, followed by a three-course meal and a private shower suite.
Tim doesn't touch the glass. "Actually," Tim says, "according to my analysis of Emirates' 2024 financial results, this champagne is technically a 'non-market-based distortion' funded by sovereign subsidies. If you look at the CASM of this bar stool, it’s inflated by 14% due to your lack of pension obligations."
The bartender smiles politely. "But sir, our A380 has a literal onboard bar and private suites."Tim slams his hand on the counter. "Irrelevant! I’d take a Delta 767-300 over your A380 any day. At least when I'm flying Delta, I'm supporting operational integrity and not a wide-body fleet that is only profitable because of your 'hub-and-spoke' geography hack.
And if Israel didn't attack Iran then there'd be no attacks. It's their fault.
Israel is killing 2 or Maybe 5 Birds with one stone! (1) Iran gets Destroyed, their Infrastucture gets destroyed. (2) Middle East Countries like Kuwait, SAR, UAE, Qatar losing Gas Plants & Exports (Huge Gas Fields with Israel taking over Gas Fields in Leviathan & Karish, they can raise prices and make Trillions), Bahrain,Oman,etc ALL losing Refineries,Gas Feilds,Infastructure makes Israel The Biggest winner.Just Like The Iraq war, Thousands of Americans Died, Hundreds of Thousands lost their Limbs, PTSD,etc (Don't Forget suicides By Veterans & Destroyed Family Lives) Millions of innocent civilians Died in the ME after the Bombings BY US and ISIS (ISISRAEL) Carnage. The only country to come out ahead was Israel with a much stronger economy due to Tech Firms ,Pharma Firms and weapons Industries moving to Israel (CEO's of these Firms in US are mostly Jewish).
3) Israel steals more Land more Lebanon (Best Fertile Land in ME near Litani River) 30% of Lebanese Land is now taken over By Israel.(Similarly, Israel stole millions of acres of Fertile & scenic Land (Golan Heights) from Syria.
5) Let's not Forget Nut n yahooo gets to Rule Israel a Few more years and His Corruption is Forgotton.
In Doha right now, arrived 3 days ago coming from Bangkok, staying for 5 days, for private reasons. Flight changed 4 times, including a date change. City deserted, Hotels empty, airport spooky. Even in normal times Qatar can be boring, now it is what it was: a desert…
Ten thousands laid off, shops closed, streets without life.
3 people in the stunning museum of Islamic Art, no one in the Nouvel masterpiece of the National Museum.
Got asked a dozen times why I am Here NOW???
Feeling of danger: zero. Maybe I am naive, but that’s how it feels. Even without media censorship through the state.
It seems you definitely do not understand that is not a political platform. At least be factually correct. USA or Israel did not attack these airports, Iran did.
I can say the Middle East airlines are still flying out of Heathrow daily. I don't know what the capacity is onboard.
The only airline missing is MEA - Lebanon.
And only once I saw El Al.
Some report on the internet that the the airport there has been altered quite a bit by bombing. Not sure how true that is.
@upstater
It is so amazing that educated people can display intense bias without understanding they are totally exposed.
US & Israel are attacking military targets attempting to remove nuclear warheads and destroy missile factories.
Your "war criminals" are IRANIAN TERRORISTS who are attacking local countries who are not participants with attacks on airports, hotels, housing, oil fields.
But your total thrust is to claim US/Israel are war criminals ""IF" while at the same time ignoring the REAL WAR CRIMINAL for the last 57 years
It arrears Icarus has a hate on for his President. Really? How rational is this rant?
If one's government issues a Do Not Travel 'advisory' , then best not to do so especially as your travel insurance policy is automatically invalidated if you do!
With Qatar (QR) cancelling both outward and inwards flights the decision is made for me without further thought.
(BTW, anyone imagining that such travel is "incredibly safe" is living in cloud cuckoo land.)
Criticising the State of Israel is NOT antisemetic Derek.
Two separate things.
I think when the countries stabilize to a point of not being on the do not fly list is a start and then it will take time before people regain the trust and confidence. I also think it will be about common sense. There are many places that are legitimately safe but also on the do not travel list too.