Well this is a bit unusual. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is reporting that it’ll be the busiest Thanksgiving for air travel in 15 years, while airline data suggests otherwise. There’s an interesting explanation, as it comes down to different definitions of “busy.”
In this post:
Thanksgiving travel bookings down 4.5% year-over-year
Aviation analytics company Cirium has analyzed flight booking data in advance of the Thanksgiving 2025 travel period, and has compared it to 2024. The data has revealed that Thanksgiving travel bookings are down 4.48% compared to last year.
This is for the travel period of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving to Thanksgiving Sunday (November 26 through November 30, 2025, compared to November 27 through December 1, 2024). These figures reflect advance bookings made between June 30 and November 21 in each year, and represent domestic travel from a sample of key cities in the United States.
Cirium is the best aviation analytics company for this kind of stuff, and has exceptional data. However, let me note the following caveat that Cirium shares:
This data is based on a sample of data from online travel agencies and not the airlines themselves, and so it does not reflect their potential increase in bookings; accordingly it is directional in nature. In addition, we have also seen citations of bookings actually increasing year-over-year, around +1%. The Cirium sample contains more than 450,000 bookings.
Let me also emphasize that Cirium is no way politically biased when it comes to the data it shares, before someone tries to suggest this is some sort of a political hit job, pushing a certain agenda. The company always shares its unbiased data on travel trends, no matter what narrative they favor.
Interestingly, Cirium also reports that flight bookings have slowed significantly after the shutdown. Beginning October 31, 2025, booking momentum has slowed sharply. Year-over-year growth was up 1.56% on October 31, but by November 21, it has fallen to -4.48% growth, representing a six point swing over two weeks.
This means the velocity of bookings has flipped from modest positive growth to a year-over-year decline, and it’s attributed to travel uncertainty. 
FAA claims Thanksgiving will see record number of flights
So here’s where it gets interesting. The FAA has just put out a press release claiming it’s going to be the busiest Thanksgiving travel period in 15 years, as there are over 360,000 flights scheduled over the Thanksgiving travel period. The FAA has released the below graphic regarding the number of flights that will operate by day.
So it seems pretty clear what’s going on here — this will be a record breaking Thanksgiving in terms of the number of commercial flights that are operated, while actual travel demand will be down. So yeah, it’ll be record breaking only in terms of the number of planes operating, and not in terms of the number of passengers.
I imagine that the primary explanation here is that airlines were expecting it to be super busy, but the shutdown caused many people to make other plans, and avoid traveling for Thanksgiving, given the uncertainty. After all, the shutdown happened during the busiest period for Thanksgiving flight bookings.
With that in mind, I guess this is a double edged sword — you can expect quite a bit of congestion at airports in terms of potential air traffic control delays (given the number of planes operating), while the actual flying experience should be pleasant, with airports not being as crowded as usual, flights having empty seats, etc.
Bottom line
It’s going to be an interesting Thanksgiving for air travel, as we’re going to see a record number of flights operate, while actual passenger demand is expected to be down somewhere around 4.5%. If this all ends up playing out as expected, that means it could actually be a pretty civilized Thanksgiving travel season, with airports not that crowded, and maybe even some empty seats on planes.
What do you make of these Thanksgiving travel trends?
Additional data point: I had tickets booked around Christmas between NYC and PSP.
The same tickets (AA & AS) are now much cheaper. Not sure if it means that demand for travel is less than originally planned.
Prices were beyond insane for my usual Thanksgiving route, and many consumers are becoming more price conscious. Only reason I’m heading home this week is because booking with miles was a solid deal
That said, the other side of the coin have more money than ever. F cabins have been full on both legs for a month+ now. So no, do not expect upgrades to be easy. Even if seats are available, the highest spenders will take those before your upgrade clears
Government shutdown had people afraid to book and now it's too late/expensive to book. I imagine the roads will be even busier this year.
And then there is another article with a different take:
“Airlines predict record numbers of travelers this Thanksgiving”
https://apple.news/AK_bMYhGsTE2YOv51Tu5EJA
I have last minute trip right now from Mon to Wed and it is practically super light at SFO. My flight back from Dallas on Wed seems to have almost 30% availability!
I was prepared for long lines and it took me 15 mins through security and 5 mins of wait at the Club (i have never just waltzed in before).
Changes in the percent of tickets booked through direct airline channels affects this data.
and many people are changing their travel habits to avoid the peak travel days including by extending the length of their travel past the traditional window.
The government was shut down when US airlines reported their 3rd quarter financials and issued 4th quarter guidance. Multiple airlines have said since the government shut down that the 4th quarter would be strong domestically...
Changes in the percent of tickets booked through direct airline channels affects this data.
and many people are changing their travel habits to avoid the peak travel days including by extending the length of their travel past the traditional window.
The government was shut down when US airlines reported their 3rd quarter financials and issued 4th quarter guidance. Multiple airlines have said since the government shut down that the 4th quarter would be strong domestically and they haven't revised their guidance so the chances are that, even though there may have been some movement within the data Cirium or the FAA measured, it isn't affecting the quarter as a whole.
It’s not that complicated. A lot of people are out of work and are also plain financially insecure. I think we know whose fault it is. Same corrupt pedo (“allergy”) that loves to assign blame to others but takes none himself.
let's also not forget that there has been alot of capacity pulled from the US air transportation system by NK and other low cost/ultra low cost carriers.
Without having the change in capacity over the same period as the citation about reduced demand, the reduction in demand data is meaningless.
I'm not sure people should get so happy they're going to upgraded. I just paid an upgrade fee of $600 for Thanksgiving MIA/SFO with only two seats open. My hunch is that people with money are still flying and still buying or cash upgrading to premium.
My hunch is that the lower of the economic scale is really hurting, they're overextended on credit and will be spending the holidays at home. I went to...
I'm not sure people should get so happy they're going to upgraded. I just paid an upgrade fee of $600 for Thanksgiving MIA/SFO with only two seats open. My hunch is that people with money are still flying and still buying or cash upgrading to premium.
My hunch is that the lower of the economic scale is really hurting, they're overextended on credit and will be spending the holidays at home. I went to the grocery store Saturday to buy three days worth of food more myself. Just about $100. Really what is a family of four spending for weekly groceries?
Queue the OMAAT lunatics in the comments. I wonder who they will blame today, "Trump", "Putin", "Israel", "ROC vs PRC" yadayadayada.
it's actually your mom's fault bc when she flies on a plane the rest of the seats need to be empty
@betterbub - Your comment is not only embarrassing for you, but it’s really embarrassing this is the caliber of Ben’s audience and you’re even a Diamond member. Good job to you both on such a gross accomplishment.
welcome to the 21st century, old geezer
It's hard to blame people for not booking when they weren't sure if there would be disruption.
I wonder if you'll get a last minute uptick, though they might not do that if airlines are unwilling to lower last minute pricing
I was wondering whay Delta upgraded me on MSP-LAX Nov-27 at the 5 day mark.
Good for you.
I'm flying MSP - ATL on Monday and the prices were a bit lower than usual. I still don't expect any upgrades because there will still be a hundred concierge key members ahead of me lol.
Even lower without reading the article. You’ll get upgraded like a champ this week with any sort of status.
Well, Cirium's period of analysis is only from Wednesday through Sunday.. while FAA in this chart you show starts earlier. I'm traveling tomorrow, Tuesday, and that's not captured in the Cirium sample. I know a lot of people who are either traveling before the Wednesday or after the sunday the 30th... so it seems like the traditional Wednesday- Sunday time period isnt necessarily the best lens for this analysis.
Sure, it's anecdotal, but I...
Well, Cirium's period of analysis is only from Wednesday through Sunday.. while FAA in this chart you show starts earlier. I'm traveling tomorrow, Tuesday, and that's not captured in the Cirium sample. I know a lot of people who are either traveling before the Wednesday or after the sunday the 30th... so it seems like the traditional Wednesday- Sunday time period isnt necessarily the best lens for this analysis.
Sure, it's anecdotal, but I havent flown on the traditional wednesday- sunday time period for years, and I dont know of anybody who has.
Also, FAA's time period extends through next week - MOnday an Tuesday. Those, too, are increasingly busy travel days for Thanksgiving returns.
Also, the Cirium has a huge hole in its source material as you point out - only through online travel agents, no examination of direct bookings. That's a huge hole as people move increasingly to book directly.
I dont think that there will necessarily be fewer passengers over the entire period....
Also, FAA's time period extends through next week - MOnday an Tuesday. Those, too, are increasingly busy travel days for Thanksgiving returns.
Also, the Cirium has a huge hole in its source material as you point out - only through online travel agents, no examination of direct bookings. That's a huge hole as people move increasingly to book directly.
I dont think that there will necessarily be fewer passengers over the entire period. Maybe through Cirium's narrow sample, but that doesnt necessarily translate into lower numbers actually traveling over the course of the extended Thanksgiving holiday.
In that regard, then your travel pattern shouldn't affect Cirium's claims, no? If you've never been a Wednesday-Sunday flier, and that isn't changing this year, then you simply are out of the sample.
The 5% decline is YoY for that time period, so unless there's a significant portion of the public that shifted from Wednesday flying to Tuesday flying (and so isn't caught by their lens), it's still an overall decline.
Fair enough, but I'd still look at the total time period and not just the old standard Wednesday- Sunday. Those days arent even when the largest number of flights are anymore.
Absolutely agree. I wish the Cirium data could capture a wider range of dates, since that sampling would be interesting.
the OTA vs Direct Booking trends could be a big factor too - I haven't looked, and I haven't seen much about whether people are migrating away from OTAs outside of more anecdotal stories from friends who find that direct booking is marginally less confusing with all the fare types.