This is purely speculation on my part, but am I the only one who thinks this will finally be the week where our aviation ecosystem in the United States “breaks,” and that will move the needle with the government shutdown?
In this post:
United States aviation is reaching a breaking point
The government in the United States has now been shut down for 33 days and counting, with no end in sight. So while most federal workers still have to go to work, they’re not getting paychecks.
That’s perhaps not a huge deal for those with a safety net, but with two-thirds of Americans living paycheck to paycheck, this starts to become really complicated. After all, a promise of getting retroactive pay at some point doesn’t help put food on the table today, doesn’t pay for childcare, etc.
For roughly the first month of the shutdown, the aviation industry was pretty resilient, in terms of staffing levels for air traffic controllers and TSA officers. However, in recent days, things are going a bit less smoothly, and there’s a noticeable decline.
On the air traffic control front, we’re seeing more and more cases of controller shortages causing ground delay programs. Just keep an eye on the FAA’s National Airspace System Status over the coming days, and I suspect things won’t be looking very pretty.
On the TSA front, we’re also increasingly hearing stories of staffing shortages causing very long security lines.
I have to imagine that these issues will get worse rather than better with every passing day. And even consistently small staffing shortages can have a disproportionate impact on keeping things moving smoothly, given that our system doesn’t have much of a buffer.
The airline industry has the power to end the shutdown
The last government shutdown happened in late 2018 and early 2019, and lasted for 35 days. That was the longest shutdown in nearly 50 years, so we’re just a couple of days from reaching that point.
What ended that shutdown? Well, it ended just hours after the FAA was forced to limit flights at many major airports due to a lack of staffing among air traffic controllers. The airline industry has disproportionate implications for society. People can deal with issues with other government services, but if you mess with their ability to travel smoothly, then suddenly you have their attention!
It sure seems like we’re going to reach that point in the very near future. The way I see it, there’s just one big issue — I don’t actually see which party will budge, given that in our political climate, the concept of compromise no longer seems to be a thing, and backing down would be viewed as defeat.
Bottom line
The government shutdown in the United States has now lasted for 33 days and counting, and no real progress has been made. The previous shutdown was the longest in around 50 years, and lasted for 35 days, so we’re approaching that point.
What I find noteworthy is that the last shutdown ended due to staffing issues with air traffic control, and it’s increasingly looking like we’re reaching the point where that’s becoming an issue again, along with TSA staffing shortages. The question is, can the parties actually find a way to negotiate to end this?
Do you think we’re reaching the point where aviation issues could end the government shutdown?
Everybody relax, the shutdown ends this week.
"If there is a shutdown I think it would be a tremendously negative mark on the president of the United States. He's the one that has to get people together." -- Donald J. Trump, April 2011.
Huh, I guess I agree with DJT. Wow. Wild.
"When they talk about the government shutdown, they're going to be talking about the president of the United States, who the president was at that time. They're not going to be talking about who was the head of the House, the head the Senate... So I really think the pressure is on the president." -- Donald J. Trump, April 2013.
Again, that guy seems to get it. Bah!
LOL just proves that no one should ever take Donald Trump seriously. The only reason why he received public displays of respect from governments and businesses is the only reason you might be polite to a deranged ape suddenly brandishing a firearm in your home. Just say what you need to say while slowly backing your way out of the room
I have to admit, I know very little about the US and it's structure, but during these shutdowns, do elected officials also have their pay suspended? Does the president get paid? If they do, it seems a little unfair given that it essentially means that they are "not in the same boat" as the people impacted, if if they're not in the same boat, won't they just not care?
President and Congress still get paid. Federal employees pay is suspended or delayed. Essential workers must work without pay; non-essential workers are sent home without pay. Federal workers who miss pay do receive back pay once the government reopens. It sure feels unfair.
Republicans should negotiate in good faith with Democrats to pass a bi-partisan budget now.
100% agree, 1990
Quite ADR, typical Animal Farm mentality.
AeroB13a, and here you are, acting like Mollie (who cares more about ribbons and sugar, like the upper class who flee); somedays, I feel like Benjamin.
Oh my lord IAH is far from the city center. I was already working over time , I could have been blocked in for hours at Terminal E. Luckily I was able to exit. The line was 500 deep for tsa . Some people gave up after 2 hours and went home/hotel. The gig economy is low paying enough and airport tips are my bread n butter. End this now. Republican Democrat I don’t care.
Gig work in Texas can't be easy, regardless of this shutdown. Good luck out there, bud.
@1990
Thanks. If there’s a will there’s a way. I had a good day working in some wealthy areas. People are chatty and I got some good tips. Cheers. I’m not sure if I will vote Republican in 2028. I’m open.
I've wondered what would happen, legally, if the airlines (let's assume the Big Four or them plus AS) started fronting ATC/TSA folks zero-interest loans to cover bills (to be repaid within 15-30 days of the end of the shutdown) as long as they kept showing up in enough numbers to keep things moving.
On the other end of things, airlines could really screw with Congress by hosing DCA if DC-area capacity gets constrained.
Speaking of 'zero-interest loans'... that's what we, the consumer/passenger, pays the airlines for specific dates, times, class of service, etc., often many months in-advance; yet, the airlines, under normal circumstances, can just cancel on a whim (maybe they messed-up on maintenance, or staffing, or just didn't sell enough for that route that day), and all they have to do is refund or rebooking. We really should have air passenger rights legislation in the USA, so...
Speaking of 'zero-interest loans'... that's what we, the consumer/passenger, pays the airlines for specific dates, times, class of service, etc., often many months in-advance; yet, the airlines, under normal circumstances, can just cancel on a whim (maybe they messed-up on maintenance, or staffing, or just didn't sell enough for that route that day), and all they have to do is refund or rebooking. We really should have air passenger rights legislation in the USA, so that we can get compensated when airlines play games like that. EU261 and Canada's APPR ensure that passengers get a few hundred dollars in situations like those. Something to consider, you know, once the adults are back in-charge.
Banger after banger, 1990. Agreed
ATC should all quit on the same day. They're not allowed to strike, but nothing is forcing them to work for free.
At some point, electing dysfunctional politicians has consequences. We are led by the worst and stupidest people in the country and I'm over it.
I hear there's a 'cold' going around... *cough*
The Dumbocrats will end it after Tuesday's election. A calculated move to fire up the base and get them to the polls. All will be back to normal by week's end.
Incorrect. Also, Thomas Paine wrote passionately against autocracy - so he'd not be in league with the current administration. Can't help but pick up a scent of fearful desperation on the GOP side. It's like they know the mood of the country is not trending their way, and Trump and his doublespeak may be showing limited utility for a huge chunk of the electorate
Well said, All Due Respect. Right-wingers are indeed the ones flailing at the moment.
As Trump said himself back in October 2013: "A shutdown falls on the President’s lack of leadership. He can’t even control his own party and get people together in a room. A shutdown means the president is weak." LOL.
The Democrats need to stop trying to point score and surrender. They cannot accept democracy.
Fascinating, Hank. The GOP has been spending years trying to subvert democratic guardrails and you're telling us that it's Democrats that cannot accept democracy? Hardly. All the Republicans have to do is come to the table and negotiate. Millions of Americans need these subsidies to keep the cost of healthcare from bringing them to financial ruin, and the Republicans would rather starve the poor and keep the government shut down than guarantee healthcare for the...
Fascinating, Hank. The GOP has been spending years trying to subvert democratic guardrails and you're telling us that it's Democrats that cannot accept democracy? Hardly. All the Republicans have to do is come to the table and negotiate. Millions of Americans need these subsidies to keep the cost of healthcare from bringing them to financial ruin, and the Republicans would rather starve the poor and keep the government shut down than guarantee healthcare for the most vulnerable. Not very pro-life of them, is it?
Yup, All Due Respect, we got a lot of 'fake-triots' on here, like @Hank Tarn.
Thank you for fighting the good fight.
Keep it closed forever.
No, thanks. You sound like a 'Sovereign Citizen.' Oof.
The more I read about the U.S. flying public, etc, the greater is my understanding of the many who distrust customer satisfaction surveys, etc. Thankfully, on the right side of the pond, we still have some faith in the honesty of most human beings.
Naw, Brexit was still a horrible idea.
And, we don't want a king.
1990 …. what has Brexit or HRH, got to do with the price of fish?
So, assuming that you have just been stupid enough to try to wind me up by introducing pathetic red herrings, I’m going to give you an abridged version of my feelings for your chosen sprats.
Firstly Brexit. Clearly people like you who do not actually live on the right side of the pond, know fat all about Brexit …. apart...
1990 …. what has Brexit or HRH, got to do with the price of fish?
So, assuming that you have just been stupid enough to try to wind me up by introducing pathetic red herrings, I’m going to give you an abridged version of my feelings for your chosen sprats.
Firstly Brexit. Clearly people like you who do not actually live on the right side of the pond, know fat all about Brexit …. apart from the name. You have absolutely no idea of what being treated like a subservient EU dogs-body was all about. You could not be expected to see that prior to the Brexit referendum, the EU was being turned into the Fourth Reich. Notwithstanding, it is public purse, parasitic, gravy train for failed national politicians. You could never appreciate that it was Mrs Merkel who announced to the world that Europe needed a cheaper workforce and that every scrounging nobody, was welcome to take the indigenous populations to the cleaners.
You claim that “Brexit is still a horrible idea”, however, I will bet you a pound to a pinch of dog’s droppings, that you cannot qualify that nonsense? One thing is true, that is, that Brexit was never done. The will of the electorate has not been achieved. The blue rosette sporting, weak, wet and woke politicians who claimed to be Conservatives, in reality were nothing more than Lib Dem’s in drag. Their incompetence has condemned Great Britain to decades of penury due to the loony, leftist policies of the current Labour government.
“And, we don't want a king”. We all know that the colonialists rejected the English Monarchy a few decades ago. {:-) That might well have been the beginning of the downfall of the USA. Pledging one’s allegiance to a monarch rather than just a flag, or, concept of a country, is something which few who bother to read this missive will have an inclination about. It takes hundreds of years of breeding to have that understanding instilled into one. The USA and its people are still in their infancy.
Put some time in 1990, look, listen and learn before trying to score points in future, yes?
Yikes. A modern nation's strength comes from its alliances, economy, and adaptable institutions, not from romanticized historical breeding or isolationist retreat.
On the EU, you predictably ignored or minimized all the expansive benefits of economic cooperation and political stability.
As to your comments on the USA, you're welcome, yet again, for rescuing you twice last century; and, thanks again for joining us in the Middle East, for better and worse.
Thank you 1990, you have confirmed without any shadow of a doubt that you possess a very shallow knowledge of Great Britain, the political system endemic in mainland Europe and true economic reasons why the USA became involved in the two World Wars.
As for your stereotypical nonsensical statement about the Middle East, your U.S. propaganda swallowing will choke you one day soon. Your ignorance must be bliss and undeniable straight out of the Company World Book.
AeroB13a, that a lotta unnecessary fluff to say, (you) 'disagree.'
Brits and 'fluff?" I can't imagine such a thing.
"The airline industry has disproportionate implications for society. "
No it doesn't. The average person doesn't fly.
The airline industry has disproportionate implications for THE RICH. Which is why the politicians care.
if cargo travel is counted as part of the "airline industry" then I'd imagine the implications are far wider than just for those who physically get on a plane and fly
I doubt someone flying on Frontier or Allegiant to go see grandma would be considered RICH.
It's roughly $11B in tax revenue.
Hey James. I'm a frequent flier because I take regional flights twice a week to look after my grandparents. They're getting on in years, and while they're still sharp and with it, they appreciate the help with tasks around the house over the weekends. I'm not rich - I'm barely middle class in the city where I live.
All Due Respect, you sound like a fantastic grandson. Cherish that time with them.
Appreciate you 1990. Feels like a Stepbrothers moment on these comments
"I was at about 6 there... you don't wanna see me go to 10..."
The oft-cited statistic you mention about "two-thirds of Americans living paycheck to paycheck" is probably not accurate. I encourage you to listen to the excellent More or Less podcast by economist Tim Harford in their 14 December 2024 episode who deconstructed this claim as it is based on survey responses which are often quite subjective.
Tim 'free-markety' Harford? The British (I'd argue, center-right) economist who has promoted both flat tax and also universal basic income. Perhaps, he's a pragmatist. (Besides, what would the lobbyists and special interests do with the loss of all those juicy deductions? Oh, bribes. Got it.)
A deal will get done before the week of Thanksgiving. Otherwise somebody better be holding nets on the ground to catch the planes that will inevitably fall out of the sky.
What a headline!
Make sure you purchase refundable fares!
If you want this shutdown to end, look no further than ATC at Teterboro. I hear there's a cold going around... *cough*
It has to directly affect oligarchs and their mercenaries (CEOs) for anything to matter. It should not be that way. I can't wait for the new Progressive era that should follow this 2nd Gilded Age.
Oh, and be wary of anyone who pushes for 'privatizing' anything, like ATC, FAA, TSA, etc.
That's a classic Republican trope... 'break it' then attempt to steal it. See post-Soviet Russia under Putin. Even oligarchs have to watch for 'open windows' in that mafia system.
Such anarcho-libertarianism only leads to corporate-feudalism, consolidate power and wealth, and poverty for all else.
We need a new New Deal.
The GQP instinct to "privatize" is corrupt at worst and philosophically incoherent at best. Taken to its logical conclusion, the libertarian instinct to privatize eliminates the only mechanism that can prevent corporate feudalism.
The contradiction: Laissez-faire concentrates power through consolidation, not competition. "Exit options" require alternatives that monopolies destroy. You're trading imperfect electoral accountability for unaccountable corporate autocracy.
Why government matters: It's the only institution powerful enough to check private monopolies. Privatization without regulation just...
The GQP instinct to "privatize" is corrupt at worst and philosophically incoherent at best. Taken to its logical conclusion, the libertarian instinct to privatize eliminates the only mechanism that can prevent corporate feudalism.
The contradiction: Laissez-faire concentrates power through consolidation, not competition. "Exit options" require alternatives that monopolies destroy. You're trading imperfect electoral accountability for unaccountable corporate autocracy.
Why government matters: It's the only institution powerful enough to check private monopolies. Privatization without regulation just picks which oligarchs extract rents.
Historical verdict: We tried this. Gilded Age: Standard Oil monopolies, company towns, Pinkertons shooting strikers. Required a century of reform to fix. See also: post-Soviet Russia.
Your New Deal instinct is right.
Thank you, All Due Respect. Finally, someone who actually 'gets it.' Tough to find these days.
From my reading of the history from those other periods, the only way we get out of this mess is greater transparency and awareness of these excesses (by Trump, his enablers, those oligarchs), often achieved through high quality 'accountability' journalism, fighting disinformation (which is increasingly difficult online, as you can see 'live' on here), and holding the line...
Thank you, All Due Respect. Finally, someone who actually 'gets it.' Tough to find these days.
From my reading of the history from those other periods, the only way we get out of this mess is greater transparency and awareness of these excesses (by Trump, his enablers, those oligarchs), often achieved through high quality 'accountability' journalism, fighting disinformation (which is increasingly difficult online, as you can see 'live' on here), and holding the line (not voluntarily surrendering rights, non-violent protest, civil disobedience).
Otherwise, I found (actual) Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Ressa's life's work and recent book on how the Philippines 'survived' Duterte (his increasingly autocratic rule and the forces that enabled him) very informative (for a relatively contemporary example); someday, the 'impunity' will end, and we'll need to rebuild rules-based order, ideally, stronger and better than before.
"Oh, and be wary of anyone who pushes for 'privatizing' anything, like ATC, FAA, TSA, etc."
SFO has private airport security and its ranked on of the best in terms of safety and efficiency in the nation.
Best airport in the US is a bit like being the nation's tallest midget
The party controlling both houses of Congress has the authority and the power to pass a continuing resolution, which would maintain funding authorization at the prior fiscal year's levels. It is a conscious decision by that party to keep the government shut down.
Funny how the No Kings party has the power to filibuster any end to the shutdown. It’s almost as if the USA doesn’t in fact have a king ♂️
9C, this has nothing to do with the filibuster. It has everything to do with earning 60 votes to pass a budget. No one is holding up a vote; they're just not getting enough votes to pass.
As for whether we have a king, no, not yet, but his authoritarian tendencies are concerning. And, his recent push for Senators in his own party to use the 'nuclear option' to change rules requiring only a...
9C, this has nothing to do with the filibuster. It has everything to do with earning 60 votes to pass a budget. No one is holding up a vote; they're just not getting enough votes to pass.
As for whether we have a king, no, not yet, but his authoritarian tendencies are concerning. And, his recent push for Senators in his own party to use the 'nuclear option' to change rules requiring only a simple majority to pass legislation (like this budget), is more king-like, because he is not respecting the separation of powers in Congress by changing such rules to make his own wishes the reality.
If a President from the other party was doing the things Trump is doing, you'd've already had several more J6-style coup-attempts by now... many of you called Obama a dictator for far less (like, wearing a tan suit or 'mom' jeans, psh.)
Such a short memory. Biden (really his shadow government) was all for ending the filibuster as well, and to do a lot more than just pass a budget. A few American heroes on the left stood up to the rest of their party (Manchin and Sinema) to make sure this didn't happen. While Trump is now calling to end the filibuster to pass the budget, the rest of the right isn't even considering it. It will be a dark day if/when the filibuster is ended.
The sole reason why 60 votes (rather than 50+1, are needed) is because of the filibuster.
A continuing resolution only requires a simple majority in each house of Congress. As such, the filibuster does not come into play and the No Kings party has no power to stop a continuing resolution.
Opening the govt does require 60 Senate votes. There has been a simple majority in the Senate to open govt, but not 60 votes.
Actually, they do require 60 votes unless you get rid of the filibuster. Getting rid of the filibuster is bad for both parties. With filibuster, while inconvenient (to put in mildly) is a leverage used the minority party on both sides.
Except that Senate rules limit those to one per year.
Obviously this is not a good time to go ‘pond-hopping’ …. deferring our next trip to FL would appear to be a sensible option.
Skip FL in-general. My goodness, BA/VS has non-stops to the Maldives. Treat yo-self betta!
Golf is a bit limited in the Maldives.
They used to an actual golf course (9 holes) at the Shangri-La at Villingili Island in the Addu Atoll (alas, it closed, but may be scheduled to reopen this December 31, 2025!)
I'm Jewish, so the Maldives aren't currently an option.
All Due Respect, no worries, Miami, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Turks & Caicos, Mexico, and others, are all likely closer, more affordable, and more welcoming.
…. :-) My ‘snow-birding’ sister (CO summer, FL winter) would not be happy if her GB family failed to show. Our UK family would not be happy if they could not escape from the drudge of our UK winter.
I have visited the reefs on too many occasions to remember over the decades. Gan was a regular refuelling occurrence in the RAF Britannia days. Even learned to dive (twin hose) in those days and...
…. :-) My ‘snow-birding’ sister (CO summer, FL winter) would not be happy if her GB family failed to show. Our UK family would not be happy if they could not escape from the drudge of our UK winter.
I have visited the reefs on too many occasions to remember over the decades. Gan was a regular refuelling occurrence in the RAF Britannia days. Even learned to dive (twin hose) in those days and quite possibly at a time before you were a twinkle in your father’s eye …. :-)
You get what you deserve, America.
Karma for voting in Trump, funding a genocide, protecting Epstein and being AIPAC’s bitch.
100%
BZ, stands for “Bumptious Zealot”, yes?
Sure feels that way. We're working on, though. Don't lose hope. Thanks for your concern.
Yes "America" at large did elect Trump in 2024 (by a plurality not an outright majority in the electoral college), but it is a sad and scary time for those of us who did not vote for the orange menace all 3 times, and yet still have to live here.
And to be fair in 2016, Trump did not win the popular vote. So, a majority of America did not want him. I still don't...
Yes "America" at large did elect Trump in 2024 (by a plurality not an outright majority in the electoral college), but it is a sad and scary time for those of us who did not vote for the orange menace all 3 times, and yet still have to live here.
And to be fair in 2016, Trump did not win the popular vote. So, a majority of America did not want him. I still don't understand how it is that one registered voter in Wyoming counts the same as 4 registered voters in California...
Maybe Democratic donors could spend money subsidizing moving about 100,000 blue voters from states where we have too much (California) to states that were close like PA, MI, WI, NV, GA. That could make a big difference in these outcomes. It probably also more cost effective than paying for more ineffective TV and social media ads that don't seem to do much and are annoying. Just my $0.02
Democrats helped Trump get elected this time because Biden picked Kamala, a weak candidate.
no, derek, ultimately, we 'blame' or 'respect' the voters for their decisions.
If there's blame beyond that, I'd say it's more with Joe (and the DNC), not Kamala, who actually did alright with the limited time she had; because Joe shouldn't have run again, and then there would have been a real primary, and a chance for her to obtain genuine support from her party, rather than be forced into that position.
None of that matters now, though, does it?
Not a genocide, hope that helps!
Yup, although IMHO it can hardly be viewed as "karma," wherein the universe sends unrelated bad things your way, given that these were all direct, predictable, and expressly warned consequences.
Government shutdown is one of the stupidest things ever, unfortunately with real world implications. With the amount of close calls in recent days, let’s just hope government reopens before something unthinkable happens.
Agreed. Congress, the Senate in-particular, specifically Republicans, who control both chambers, should negotiate a resolution in-good-faith, with Democrats, immediately.
You dont negotiate with an arsonist. The Dems are free to open govt and get a vote on continuing Covid subsidies for the ACA, but thier original ask was ridiculous.
Brian W, that's hyperbolic. No one is an arsonist here. Republicans need Democrats votes to pass a budget; if Republicans don't negotiate, they won't get the votes they need.
The arsonist is in the White House, Brian W
Let it. The last time the government was shut down in 2019, it led to a meltdown in US aviation and that pushed the government to reopen.
And what lead that 'push'? NYC-area ATC, not just LGA, JFK, EWR, but also TEB. I think TEB had an outsized influence as it affects oligarchs and their mercenaries private jets. I hear there's a cold going around there.... *COUGH* (time to call out-sick, for your health.)