The Bangkok Post reports on how we could see the resumption of nonstop flights between Thailand and the United States in the near future, for the first time in nearly a decade. Thanks to reader Drew for flagging this.
Thailand expects Category 1 FAA rating soon
Back in the day, Thai Airways used to fly nonstop from Bangkok (BKK) to both Los Angeles (LAX) and New York (JFK) using Airbus A340-500s. These ultra long haul flights ended up being canceled because they lost money, and we haven’t seen any nonstop flights between the two countries since 2015.
Unrelated, in late 2015, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) conducted a safety audit of the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT), and found deficiencies in oversight. As a result, the country’s safety rating was downgraded from a Category 1 to a Category 2, preventing airlines from Thailand from adding nonstop flights to the United States.
For background, with the International Convention of Civil Aviation, every country is responsible for the oversight of its own air carriers. Of course once in a while there also need to be audits to ensure that regulators are doing their jobs correctly.
The FAA conducts the International Aviation Safety Assessment Program (IASA). The assessment is intended to determine if the relevant civil aviation authorities provide oversight to carriers that are in line with international standards. That’s why Thailand’s rating was downgraded back in 2015. Note that just because a country’s safety rating is demoted doesn’t at all suggest the airlines from that country are unsafe. It just suggests there’s a lack of oversight from regulatory authorities.
For the past many years, Thailand has been working to regain its Category 1 rating, and there’s now a positive update. Thailand’s Deputy Prime Minister has stated that the country has made significant progress in regaining its Category 1 rating, and expects that to happen by February 2025. Goodness, this sure has taken some time, but it’s good news.
Will we see nonstop flights between Thailand and the United States?
The Bangkok Post suggests that because Thailand’s FAA rating will be upgraded to a Category 1, we’ll see the resumption of nonstop flights between the countries. However, I don’t see anything specifically suggesting that will be the case. So let’s talk about that for a second.
Currently the only nonstop flight between North America and Bangkok is on Air Canada, as the airline launched a seasonal route in late 2022. That has returned for a couple of years now, so that suggests the route is performing reasonably well (then again, there are limited places you can profitably fly wide bodies in winter).
I think it’s safe to assume that if a US airline were to fly to Bangkok, it would be United Airlines, since it’s by far the most global US carrier, especially in Asia. That being said, despite United’s creative expansion, we haven’t seen new service to Thailand.
I wouldn’t necessarily expect that to change. Then again, with The White Lotus Season 3 coming out soon, and being filmed in Thailand, maybe we’ll suddenly see a huge increase in demand for travel to the country from the United States. I wouldn’t be shocked if United added a winter seasonal route to the country, like Air Canada.
Beyond that, it seems most likely that Thai Airways would be the airline flying between Thailand and the United States. Admittedly Thai Airways is a bit of a mess at times, and has struggled with profitability. However, at the moment, the airline is in full-on expansion mode.
Unlike in the past, I could potentially see merit to Thai Airways flying to the United States:
- Planes have become much more fuel efficient than back in the day, so the economics of ultra long haul flying work better than in the past
- Thai Airways is owned by the government, so this route could largely be about increasing inbound tourism to Thailand
- Thai Airways has big expansion plans, and has 45 Boeing 787-9s on order
So I do think we’ll eventually see Thai Airways fly to the United States, though I question the timeline. Thai Airways is only expected to get its new 787s starting in 2027. The airline could make the service work with some existing planes, though it would have to come at the expense of some other routes.
For now we’ll mark this as “developing.”
Bottom line
Thailand believes that it will soon regain its Category 1 rating with the FAA, which would allow Thai Airways to resume nonstop flights to the United States. While getting a better rating from a safety audit is good news regardless, it remains to be seen if we actually see nonstop flights launch between the two countries.
Travel to Thailand is of course heavily leisure oriented, but then again, premium leisure seems to be pretty lucrative nowadays, even in long haul markets.
Do you think we’ll see the resumption of nonstop flights between Thailand and the United States?
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