American Airlines will be cutting two London flights this winter. While I wouldn’t consider this to be the most significant development in the world, it definitely points at a bigger trend we’re seeing with the airline industry, and I think this is only the beginning.
In this post:
American reducing London flying in winter
As first flagged by @xJonNYC, American will be suspending two flights to London for the upcoming winter season (late October 2024 through late March 2025):
- American will suspend its once daily Phoenix (PHX) to London (LHR) flight, operated by a Boeing 777; otherwise, this route is served once daily by joint venture partner British Airways, with an Airbus A350
- American will suspend one of its three daily Los Angeles (LAX) to London (LHR) flights, operated by a Boeing 777; in addition to the two American frequencies that are sticking around, joint venture partner British Airways also operates the route three times daily
As you’d expect, historically the Phoenix to London flight has been popular with Americans heading to Europe in summer, while it has been popular with Europeans heading to the United States in winter, especially given that Arizona is generally nicest to visit in winter. It’s kind of like Miami, in being a counter seasonal long haul destination (at least compared to the traditional transatlantic demand patterns).
Los Angeles to London is of course a massive and highly competitive market, which has a ton of capacity. The American and British Airways joint venture dominates the market. United operates the route once daily in winter, while Virgin Atlantic operates twice daily. This is a route that Delta recently cut once again, as the airline left the route to joint venture partner Virgin Atlantic. As much as Delta seemed to want to increase its long haul presence in Los Angeles, that’s not really materializing much.
Why I find these route cuts to be noteworthy
Admittedly demand across the Atlantic is highly seasonal. In summer (and it’s a pretty long season nowadays), leisure demand is huge, including premium leisure demand. But in winter, it’s largely about business travel. Flights across the Atlantic might often be less than half full, but could still be profitable thanks to the fares business travelers are paying.
Personally I think the industry is at a turning point right now, and we’re going to see a lot more schedule trimming. For example, we just saw Delta report its Q2 2024 results, and while the airline had record revenue, profit was down considerably compared to the same period last year.
Yes, premium leisure demand has been really strong in the past couple of years. But there’s now an uphill battle, as global capacity has ramped up very quickly. Going back a year, capacity wasn’t restored yet to the level it is now, and now we’re seeing airline executives claim that the industry has overcapacity. And that doesn’t even account for the lack of aircraft airlines have, due to 737 MAX delivery and certification delays, plus Airbus Pratt & Whitney engine issues.
As much as airlines complain about delivery delays, could you imagine what a bloodbath it would be for airlines if they could actually fly all the planes they wanted to?
For so long, we’ve seen the legacy airlines almost seeming unstoppable, but I think that’s starting to change. And it doesn’t even factor in the continued higher labor costs they’re going to deal with, as flight attendants will soon be getting raises as well.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting they’re at risk of going out of business. However, I think the cocky narrative you hear from some executives in the industry about how “the only way is up” will be met with a lot more skepticism.
While American executives claim that the airline loses money flying wide body planes on domestic flights, I still think we’re going to see a lot more of these flying domestically in winter than planned, as more international capacity is cut.
Bottom line
American will be canceling two flights to London this winter, including the once daily Phoenix to London service, plus one of the three daily Los Angeles to London services. While these cuts individually aren’t necessarily a huge deal, I think we’re going to see considerable seasonal long haul capacity cuts from airlines for the foreseeable future.
As capacity in the industry has ramped up, business travel hasn’t fully recovered, transpacific flights are still struggling, and costs have gone way up, it’s going to be a tough road ahead. Sure, airlines will never have issues filling planes across the Atlantic in the peak of summer, but outside of that, it’s a different story…
What do you make of these American route cuts?
the sole AA employee still can't accept that AA is a shadow of its former self and carries half of the passengers Delta does at JFK, is now trying to hold onto a tie with UA for #2 at LAX after DL took the #1 place there and has half the share of UA and half of what UA used to have at ORD.
and the poor soul still conflates widebody international traffic with regional...
the sole AA employee still can't accept that AA is a shadow of its former self and carries half of the passengers Delta does at JFK, is now trying to hold onto a tie with UA for #2 at LAX after DL took the #1 place there and has half the share of UA and half of what UA used to have at ORD.
and the poor soul still conflates widebody international traffic with regional jets and narrowbodies to the Caribbean. Arguing one point in one paragraph and then somehow forgetting the basis of the argument in the next sounds oh so presidential.
Delta is the LARGEST longhaul airline from the east coast.
on the Pacific, let's not forget that AA had great plans for a SEA hub in partnership with AS after it decimated Chicago and LAX to Asia and that DFW is AA's only global hub and its largest international hub outside of MIA - by a wide margin.
Everyone understands what AA's strategic problems are except the handful of paid people that resist the reality.
If you spent half of the effort coming up with a plan that would make AA work rather than arguing against the reality that we can all see, AA might have a future.
This comment is egrious even by your standards
Mr worldtraveller got beaten in an argument, again
“even after all the shade that was thrown at DL for swapping one flight with VS.”
-False. DL never swapped LAX-LHR with VS after cutting service. VS operated flights 7/8, 23/24, and 141/142 while DL operated 186/187 simultaneously. VS maintained 3x frequencies before and after DL cut service. This is the third time Tim has made this factually incorrect claim when provided with clear evidence.
DL has strategically outsmarted AA time after time including...
“even after all the shade that was thrown at DL for swapping one flight with VS.”
-False. DL never swapped LAX-LHR with VS after cutting service. VS operated flights 7/8, 23/24, and 141/142 while DL operated 186/187 simultaneously. VS maintained 3x frequencies before and after DL cut service. This is the third time Tim has made this factually incorrect claim when provided with clear evidence.
DL has strategically outsmarted AA time after time including with Latam and NYC
-False. AA carried more passengers from JFK in 2023 by double digit percentages since 2019 and UA carried more passengers from EWR in 2023 by double digit percentages since 2019. DL carried less passengers from JFK in 2023 than it did in 2019. DL was the only US3 carrier to post a loss in Latin American flying in the MRQ (24 Q1) and made 2.5x less profit in Latin America than AA for 2023. DL also carries less passengers, less revenue, and less profits in Latin America than AA despite dumping billions of dollars in investments with Aeromexico and LATAM.
“AA have 2/3 of the number of widebodies that DL has and have a fraction of DL's widebody orders coming.”
-False. AA has 126 wide bodies, compared to DLs 164 and UAs 220. AA is 77% (>2/3)the size of DL, whereas DL is only 75% the size of UA. As of today, AA has 30 orders for wide bodies, DL had 45, and UA has 150. The difference between AA and DL is marginal, the difference between DL and UA is massive.
DL carries the most INTERNATIONAL revenue and passengers on the east coast.
-False. For March 2024, AA carried more international passengers by a significant margin (>30%) and more total passengers than DL. Tim doesn’t knows how to access a majority of passenger data which is why he frequently excludes them to support his factually incorrect and inaccurate arguments. For brevity I’ve listed all the hubs and major cities on the East Coast for each respective carrier.
AA Airport/Dom/Intl/Combined
CLT/1,586,432/210,180/1,796,612
MIA/781,126/570,339/1,351,465
PHL/428,453/107,837/536,290 BOS/178,061/8,082/186,143
DCA/323,716/5,992/329,708 BWI/45,310/0/45,310 IAD/8,949/0/8,949 JFK/164,132/120,994/285,126 LGA/187,416/818/188,234 EWR/84,842/0/84,842
Total/3,788,437/1,024,242/4,812,679 DL Airport/Dom/Intl/Combined ATL/2,797,208/462,447/3,259,655 BOS/295,578/59,803/355,381 JFK/390,752/232,399/623,151 LGA/307,362/4,076/311,438 EWR/61,864/0/61,864 DCA/100,933/0/100,933 BWI/61,473/0/61,473 IAD/28,381/0/28,381
Total/4,043,551/758,725/4,802,276
realities that REAL AA customers say including over on AA's site where they say that AA's international network is small.
-Subjective. I’m not aware of a public forum for engagement on AAs site. Also, AA international network is roughly the same as DL, with DL operating only 3.7% more international ASMs than AA in 2023. However, DL pails in comparison to UA who operate over 30% more international ASMs than DL in 2023.
“AA has failed strategically in NYC - where AA was once headquartered and LAX where AA was the largest airline for decades and DL has gained billions of dollars of revenue that once flew AA.”
-Subjective. DL operates less daily and year-round long haul service from LAX than either AA or UA. Unlike DL, Both AA (LHR and TYO) and UA (TYO) have double-daily, year round long haul service from LAX. In fact, DL operates only 2 (TYO and SYD) long haul services both year-round and single-daily from LAX. AA carried more passengers from JFK in 2023 by double digit percentages since 2019 and UA carried more passengers from EWR in 2023 by double digit percentages since 2019. DL carried less passengers from JFK in 2023 than it did in 2019.
“coward like you would not put your name to your statements - because they are false and avoid the reality that every one else sees.”
-False. Tim asserts putting one names on a statement verifies universal authenticity of a claim. This is clearly false as Tim puts name on multiple factually inaccurate and incorrect statements as shown multiple times. For example,
‘DL has grown Asia/Pacific outside of LAX including DTW-PVG, the only US carrier China service that originates outside of the west coast but is starting LAX-PVG this fall.’
‘yes, you are right that I forgot AA's 4 days/week DFW-PVG service.’
They have no widebody aircraft
After all of this back and forth, it is clear that there is no "community"
There is AN American Airlines employee that can't stand to admit that
1. AA is cutting capacity from LAX AND PHX to LHR even after all the shade that was thrown at DL for swapping one flight with VS.
2. LHR is overcapacity and AA is redeploying the aircraft to AKL which requires more aircraft time than...
After all of this back and forth, it is clear that there is no "community"
There is AN American Airlines employee that can't stand to admit that
1. AA is cutting capacity from LAX AND PHX to LHR even after all the shade that was thrown at DL for swapping one flight with VS.
2. LHR is overcapacity and AA is redeploying the aircraft to AKL which requires more aircraft time than a single LHR flight
3. AA lost money in 2023 flying both the Atlantic and Pacific and is trying desperately to turn their finances around even before settling with their flight attendants whose continual noise about striking continues to drive away customers - on top of their poor service.
4. AA has failed strategically in NYC - where AA was once headquartered and LAX where AA was the largest airline for decades and DL has gained billions of dollars of revenue that once flew AA.
5. DL IS the largest airline by revenue and carries the most INTERNATIONAL revenue and passengers on the east coast.
6. DL has strategically outsmarted AA time after time including with Latam and NYC.
7. DL earned $3 billion more in profits than AA and flew less ASMs in 2023 because real customers pay more for DL's services than for either AA or UA - or any other airline.
It is perfectly obvious that the coward AA employee that acts is if they speak for others continues to try to deflect from these realities that REAL AA customers say including over on AA's site where they say that AA's international network is small (they have 2/3 of the number of widebodies that DL has and have a fraction of DL's widebody orders coming).
Real AA customers over on Gary's site repeatedly talk about leaving AA because of poor service that has deteriorated and an endless focus on DFW and CLT as hubs even though neither work well as hubs.
Continually changing the goal posts (or trying to) because you can't admit these realities simply confirms why a coward like you would not put your name to your statements - because they are false and avoid the reality that every one else sees.
“DL ON ITS OWN METAL carries more passengers from ATL, NYC and BOS than AA does from MIA, CLT, PHL, NYC and BOS. Trying to throw in codeshare partners to overcome AA's weakness doesn't change reality.”
-Misleading context. AA has a hub at DCA which was excluded in Tim’s AA vs DL east coast comparison. Including WAS and excluding branded codeshare partners, AA carries more international passengers and more total passengers from MIA, CLT,...
“DL ON ITS OWN METAL carries more passengers from ATL, NYC and BOS than AA does from MIA, CLT, PHL, NYC and BOS. Trying to throw in codeshare partners to overcome AA's weakness doesn't change reality.”
-Misleading context. AA has a hub at DCA which was excluded in Tim’s AA vs DL east coast comparison. Including WAS and excluding branded codeshare partners, AA carries more international passengers and more total passengers from MIA, CLT, PHL, NYC, WAS, and BOS than DL does from ATL, NYC, BOS, and WAS. Even if BOS is excluded from AA and WAS is excluded from DL, the result is similar. For March 2024:
AA
Airport Dom Intl Combined CLT 1,586,432 210,180 1,796,612 MIA 781,126 570,339 1,351,465 PHL 428,453 107,837 536,290
BOS 178,061 8,082 186,143 DCA 323,716 5,992 329,708
BWI 45,310 0 45,310
IAD 8,949 0 8,949
JFK 164,132 120,994 285,126
LGA 187,416 818 188,234
EWR 84,842 0 84,842 Total 3,788,437 1,024,242 4,812,679
DL
Airport Dom Intl Combined
ATL 2,797,208 462,447 3,259,655
BOS 295,578 59,803 355,381
JFK 390,752 232,399 623,151
LGA 307,362 4,076 311,438
EWR 61,864 0 61,864
DCA 100,933 0 100,933
BWI 61,473 0 61,473
IAD 28,381 0 28,381
Total 4,043,551 758,725 4,802,276
If branded codeshare partners were included, this would shift the east coast advantage even further towards AA and away from DL. UA is also larger than DL in NYC by passengers and flights and B6 is larger than DL in BOS by passengers and flights showing that DL’s only hub advantage on the east coast is unsurprisingly ATL.
The east coast doesn't consist just of ATL and MIA.
-True. One of Tim’s few statements that are accurate.
Do you even know when leadership 7.5 was?
-Answer. When Tim was fired from Delta.
Gary gets it... he has an article today. Why aren't you trashing him and telling him he was fired from American?
-Answer. I’m not aware of Gary working or having worked at AA, so telling Gary that he’s fired from an airline he doesn’t work for isn’t just silly, it’s factually inaccurate like many of Tim’s statements. On the contrary, we should praise Gary for fact checking many of your false and inaccurate statements.
American has been a 20 year case study in failure and it isn't over yet.
-Subjective. It can also be a study of AA dominating DL by passengers, flights, revenue, and profits in Latin America without having to dump billions of dollars in ownership stakes in LATAM and Aeromexico.
There is no community.
There is ONE egotistical person that thinks they speak for everyone - but in fact, they speak for themselves and, just as was the case in every one of their fact checks, were proven wrong over and over again.
The east coast doesn't consist just of ATL and MIA.
DL ON ITS OWN METAL carries more passengers from ATL, NYC and BOS than AA does from MIA, CLT, PHL, NYC and...
There is no community.
There is ONE egotistical person that thinks they speak for everyone - but in fact, they speak for themselves and, just as was the case in every one of their fact checks, were proven wrong over and over again.
The east coast doesn't consist just of ATL and MIA.
DL ON ITS OWN METAL carries more passengers from ATL, NYC and BOS than AA does from MIA, CLT, PHL, NYC and BOS.
Trying to throw in codeshare partners to overcome AA's weakness doesn't change reality.
Do you even know when leadership 7.5 was?
You spout so much crAAp of which you know nothing but the only fact is that you can't stand for someone to point out that Delta has managed to take billions of dollars in revenue because of AA's mismanagement.
Gary gets it... he has an article today. Why aren't you trashing him and telling him he was fired from American?
American has been a 20 year case study in failure and it isn't over yet.
“except that BA is also cancelling a LAX-LHR flight, no, so has nothing to do with AA's retrofit.”
-False. As of today, BA is still operating 268/9, 280/1, 282/3 until end of schedule. Off season reductions for the upcoming winter are in line with the reductions from the previous offseason.
In fact, BA’s three LAX frequencies are scheduled to run until the end of the calendar year unlike 2023. BA282/283 did...
“except that BA is also cancelling a LAX-LHR flight, no, so has nothing to do with AA's retrofit.”
-False. As of today, BA is still operating 268/9, 280/1, 282/3 until end of schedule. Off season reductions for the upcoming winter are in line with the reductions from the previous offseason.
In fact, BA’s three LAX frequencies are scheduled to run until the end of the calendar year unlike 2023. BA282/283 did not run in the latter half of November. BA also upgauged BA268/269 A380 for most of 2024 unlike 2023.
“AA is redeploying capacity out of LHR in the winter, in this case from LAX to AKL which will certainly be seasonal service.”
-False. First, AA82/83 LAX-AKL is a seasonal resumption and operated last season even before AA announced a reduction in LAX-LHR. Second, AA operates 787s on LAX-AKL and 777s on LAX-LHR.
“And Delta is the 2nd largest carrier on the west coast and the 2nd largest international carrier also on the west coast.”
-True. DL trails UA in most metrics on the west coast.
“while Delta is the largest carrier overall on the east coast and largest international carrier on the east coast.”
-False. By operating carrier, AA operates more international flights and carriers more international passengers on the east coast than DL. By marketing carrier, AA carries more total passengers and operates more flights than DL on the east coast.
It becomes clear when comparing ATL and MIA. Despite ATL’s size, MIA operates more international flights and carriers more international passengers on AA metal than DL does in ATL.
INTL Flights/Pax March 2024
AA in MIA 3.9K/570K
DL in ATL 2.5K/462K
“suppose you and ‘the community’ can accept reality - as hard as it might be for you to read?”
-Subjective. While Tim is a classic example of ‘main character syndrome’ and ‘If everyone is the problem, then you are the problem.’ it’s clear his issues go beyond making factually accurate claims.
All his life and throughout his entire career, including being pushed out of DL during Leadership 7.5, Tim has been reminded that his insights are of little value and his comments both inaccurate and unreliable. It’s clearly a point of embarrassment and sensitivity that causes him to lash out every time he’s corrected by others. Tim sets a low bar for accuracy with little to show for much else. Someone else points out a simple typo ‘batter vs. better’ and Tim goes on an unhinged rant.
Damn, you really ate him up with the fact-checks. Cookie dough batter lives in his head rent-free tbh.
Genuinely though, how does he manage to post so much misinformation and lies?
Bow down…
Q: Am I more likely to catch Aspberger's syndrome by ONLY flying Delta?
What's happening with ORDLHR? 2pd at the moment in the winter vs. 2pd in the summer. Unusual?
I also think this has to do with AA needs to refit the 77W with Flagship Suites as well as a general slow down to Europe. Agree AA will deploy more to SA but refits and the delayed 787-9 will play a role too. In the end I think AA will be solid with OW to Europe and Asia but not over capacitied like UA and DL are looking to become. I see deferrals of...
I also think this has to do with AA needs to refit the 77W with Flagship Suites as well as a general slow down to Europe. Agree AA will deploy more to SA but refits and the delayed 787-9 will play a role too. In the end I think AA will be solid with OW to Europe and Asia but not over capacitied like UA and DL are looking to become. I see deferrals of the A350/ A339 DL ordered and maybe look to bring smaller 787-8/9 to replace the 767-300. UA will delay some too and that A350 order will get pushed out again. AA wide body with XLRs might end up making the most sense for a downturn or return to normal now that everyone has seen Europe twice in the past 3 years.
except that BA is also cancelling a LAX-LHR flight, no, so has nothing to do with AA's retrofit.
And Delta is reportedly on the verge of converting the 20 options from its A350-1000 order (which are for any Airbus) widebody into more 339s. Since the 339 firm order book ends next year, DL has to order more to keep the 339s coming - necessary since another 15 or so 767s will need to be retired...
except that BA is also cancelling a LAX-LHR flight, no, so has nothing to do with AA's retrofit.
And Delta is reportedly on the verge of converting the 20 options from its A350-1000 order (which are for any Airbus) widebody into more 339s. Since the 339 firm order book ends next year, DL has to order more to keep the 339s coming - necessary since another 15 or so 767s will need to be retired in the next 3-4 years. There will be no 787s at DL at this point if ever. The 339 is very similar in size and operating cost to the 789. It makes no sense to buy a plane that has fewer seats but virtually the same operating costs.
UA can't get the 787s it has on order; it will be forced to start retiring 777s in addition to 767s from its massive order. And it will only order the A350 if it decides the range advantage DL has with the 350s is worth another fleet type.
LAX goes to two a day every year. The third LHR changes to AKL in winter
thank you for confirming that AA's cuts in LAX and PHX-LHR have nothing to do with the 777W conversions, esp. since BA is also cutting capacity.
There was overcapacity in the market and AA and BA are reacting to it
Oh so your 30 paragraph rants about aa at lhr were ignorant, as usual?
Make up your mind
They still list money flying the Atlantic even where LHR is their largest city and in a JV
My ‘rant’ was spot on.
Lost.
The rants came from those that didn’t want to hear or read that reality or at least the one that acts like they speak for all
AA didn’t lose money to lhr or the Atlantic
You just don’t understand reporting
of course. The "I don't like what the numbers say so I don't like what the data says so I will just say the numbers are all wrong" argument.
I didn't say AA loses money to LHR but I did say that if AA and BA are having to cut 3 flights/day in the winter, there is overcapacity in the market - and there has been for quite some time.
Just as I've said to...
of course. The "I don't like what the numbers say so I don't like what the data says so I will just say the numbers are all wrong" argument.
I didn't say AA loses money to LHR but I did say that if AA and BA are having to cut 3 flights/day in the winter, there is overcapacity in the market - and there has been for quite some time.
Just as I've said to others, feel free to tell us where AA is losing money if you don't like the numbers the way AA reported them to the DOT.
AA is redeploying capacity out of LHR in the winter, in this case from LAX to AKL which will certainly be seasonal service, while DL is adding seasonal winter MCO-LHR service.
And Delta is the 2nd largest carrier on the west coast and the 2nd largest international carrier also on the west coast while it is the largest carrier overall on the east coast (and nationwide by revenue) and largest international carrier on the east coast.
suppose you and "the community" can accept reality - as hard as it might be for you to read?
“Regardless what anyone said, DL operated one of the 3 flights and VS operated the other 2. DL and VS did not operate a total of 4 flights.”
-False. VS operated flights 7/8, 23/24, and 141/142 while DL operated 186/187 simultaneously. This is the second time Tim has made the factually incorrect claim when provided with clear evidence.
“yes, you are right that I forgot AA's 4 days/week DFW-PVG service. UA...
“Regardless what anyone said, DL operated one of the 3 flights and VS operated the other 2. DL and VS did not operate a total of 4 flights.”
-False. VS operated flights 7/8, 23/24, and 141/142 while DL operated 186/187 simultaneously. This is the second time Tim has made the factually incorrect claim when provided with clear evidence.
“yes, you are right that I forgot AA's 4 days/week DFW-PVG service. UA alone has PEK service.”
-True.
“As for the profits, I am so glad that you bother to use data. I never said that Delta made more money than United over the Pacific. Delta made 85% of the profits that UA made and Delta had half the revenue.”
-True.
“I didn't make an inventory of what UA flies; I said that DL execs said it would fly to MEL which would mean it will fly to all of the cities from LAX that UA flies from SFO.”
-True and false. The first statement is true which is why it’s clear the second statement is false as UA flies to over 100 destinations from SFO while DL only flies to around 50 destinations from LAX. DL doesn’t fly from any of its hubs yet alone LAX numerous longhaul destinations such as Melbourne, Christchurch, Singapore, Manila, Hong Kong, and Osaka; destinations served by UA from SFO.
DL only serves 2 (TWO) longhaul destinations daily and year-round from LAX: Tokyo and Sydney.
“none of which changes that AA and BA are REDUCING a whole lot more capacity than EVEN WHAT you assert at LAX.”
-False. While AA and DL both reduced LAX-LHR service, BA upgauged a frequency from 789 to 772 to complement existing 773 and A380 service. VS maintained gauge.
“VS may not be consistently profitable”
-True. VS hasn’t turned a net profit since 2016 and has only been profitable for 2 (TWO) years since DL spent hundreds of millions to take over half the airline in 2012.
“This is too easy. It's so sad that you try so hard to make me look bad and all you succeed at doing is making my point.”
-Subjective. If Tim’s point is making factually incorrect statements, Tim is extremely successful at proving his point.
"DL only serves 2 (TWO) longhaul destinations daily and year-round from LAX: Tokyo and Sydney."
Doesn't Delta also fly to CDG?
Not year-round to Cdg, no
when other people, not me, continue to chip away at your assertions of falsehood, it is clear that I was right all along
There is overcapacity in LAX-LHR and AA and BA are responding to it.
DL did redeploy the capacity into other markets and moved its LAX-LHR slot to ATL.
None of which changes that AA doesn't make money flying the Atlantic or Pacific but they continue to be relevant which is why...
when other people, not me, continue to chip away at your assertions of falsehood, it is clear that I was right all along
There is overcapacity in LAX-LHR and AA and BA are responding to it.
DL did redeploy the capacity into other markets and moved its LAX-LHR slot to ATL.
None of which changes that AA doesn't make money flying the Atlantic or Pacific but they continue to be relevant which is why they are flying LAX-AKL at least seasonally.
And DL is indeed not starting LAX-PVG this fall but, is flying DTW-PVG on a daily basis, which gives DL and UA 2 flights/each to PVG, AA 4X/week DFW-PVG and UA along serving PEK.
Now after all of this, do you think you can accept that LAX-LHR is over capacity and DL still makes the most PER ASM over the Pacific as well as twice what UA did in 2023 across the Atlantic?
and DL is going to expand its transpacific network which will erode UA's leadership in that arena.
The only clear takeaway is delta’s obvious weakness in the LAX market despite your unwarranted hubris
Everything else seems pretty normal in that market
Conflating revenue with overall delta profit just makes you look ignorant, as usual. Even Gary Leff is correcting you
And as others mention all the time. You don’t understand dot reporting
Delta is the largest airline at LAX both in revenue and flights. The only weakness is AA that pulled a big chunk of its international operation.
And UA added capacity that cost it profits which is why they dropped LAX to AKL
Delta is part of the smallest alliance and least relevant mileage plan in Southern California and at lax. That’s what matters in a world where all airlines are profitable due to their credit card plans
But nice try
"Delta is part of the smallest alliance"
No they aren't. Oneworld is significantly smaller than SkyTeam, by member count and just about every other metric.
Twice in the last few years delta has tried to fly one of the largest markets out of lax, London and simply is too weak at lax to do it on their own metal, an issue United and aa don’t have
Why don't you correct Julie, @Tim Dunn?
"As of May 8, 2023, Delta will add a daily year-round flight between Los Angeles (LAX) and Paris (CDG)."
“Doesn't Delta also fly to CDG?
Why don't you correct Julie, @Tim Dunn?
‘As of May 8, 2023, Delta will add a daily year-round flight between Los Angeles (LAX) and Paris (CDG).’”
Because as Julie said, it’s not daily and year round. It went 3x weekly November through March in 2023-24 and scheduled to do so again 2024-25.
How can LAX be called a Delta hub with only two full long haul routes that is so funny.
this is clearly not about "e"s and "a"s - and Delta is still the largest carrier at LAX regardless of what you want to call it
Tim
Kind of a meaningless metric to be the biggest metal when you’re the most useless alliance, corporate travel partner; and mileage partner at lax and SoCal
But you keep dreaming
“DL's decision to free up the A330-900 it used on LAX-LHR by turning that flight over to VS.”
-False. VS didn’t increase frequency or upgauge VS7/8, 23/24, and 141/142 after DL’s decision to pull out of LAX-LHR. Combined capacity on LAX-LHR for DL/VS decreased.
“Ben specifically noted DL's decision to turn LAX-LHR #3 over to VS.”
-False and misrepresentation of Ben’s article. Ben himself indicated that VS operated 3 daily...
“DL's decision to free up the A330-900 it used on LAX-LHR by turning that flight over to VS.”
-False. VS didn’t increase frequency or upgauge VS7/8, 23/24, and 141/142 after DL’s decision to pull out of LAX-LHR. Combined capacity on LAX-LHR for DL/VS decreased.
“Ben specifically noted DL's decision to turn LAX-LHR #3 over to VS.”
-False and misrepresentation of Ben’s article. Ben himself indicated that VS operated 3 daily flights prior to DLs cut. ‘The UK-based SkyTeam carrier operates up to three daily flights between Los Angeles and London.’
“AA was the first of AA and UA - the two entrenched carriers in LAX-LHR to blink.”
-Misleading context. DL reduced LAX-LHR before AA and is now the only US3 carrier to not serve LAX-LHR. LHR is typically a must-fly on own metal requirement for corporate contracts that incorporate long haul flying.
“DL has grown Asia/Pacific outside of LAX including DTW-PVG, the only US carrier China service that originates outside of the west coast but is starting LAX-PVG this fall.”
-Two false claims in one statement. AA serves DFW-PVG. OMaaT previously reported on DLs cancelling of fall resumption LAX-PVG.
Furthermore, DL is the only US3 carrier not to resume India service nor the Middle East outside of TLV. DL cut DTW-NGO, a route served even in 2021. DL forfeited HND-PDX, gifted it to AA for HND-JFK, and eroded its previous route authority advantage in Haneda. DL now operates only one additional Haneda flight from the CONUS than AA and the same amount as UA (5 CONUS and 6 total).
“DL also says it intends to fly to MEL, certainly from LAX, while UA pulled out of LAX-AKL.”
-Misleading context. UA, unlike DL, currently flies LAX-MEL in addition to SFO-MEL. DL reduced LAX-AKL from year-round to seasonal while UA still serves AKL year-round from SFO.
“UA's domination of the Pacific is going to be eroded by Delta and UA will only harm itself by trying to keep Delta out.”
-False. UA now earns more total profits in the Pacific than DL, which was not the case in 2019. UA also earned more transpacific profits in 2023 vs. 2019 while DL has seen a decrease.
UA 2019 TPAC -84M
UA 2023 TPAC 360M
UA Change 344M
DL 2019 TPAC 304M
DL 2023 TPAC 294M
DL Change -10M
I'm just reeling from the fact that he had an epic meltdown over cookie dough batter.
The level of derangement is concerning.
The derangement is strong in that one.
all of that effort and it is easy to confirm that VS operates 3 flights/day from LAX to LHR today and did yesterday.
Regardless what anyone said, DL operated one of the 3 flights and VS operated the other 2.
DL and VS did not operate a total of 4 flights.
As for the profits, I am so glad that you bother to use data.
Now, if only you could read.
all of that effort and it is easy to confirm that VS operates 3 flights/day from LAX to LHR today and did yesterday.
Regardless what anyone said, DL operated one of the 3 flights and VS operated the other 2.
DL and VS did not operate a total of 4 flights.
As for the profits, I am so glad that you bother to use data.
Now, if only you could read.
I never said that Delta made more money than United over the Pacific.
I said that Delta made twice as much as United across the Atlantic and twice as much PER SEAT MILE across the Pacific.
Given that your own numbers show that Delta made 85% of the profits that UA made and Delta had half the revenue, you proved my point precisely.
yes, you are right that I forgot AA's 4 days/week DFW-PVG service.
DL and UA both have 2 flights/day to PVG. UA alone has PEK service.
I didn't make an inventory of what UA flies; I said that DL execs said it would fly to MEL which would mean it will fly to all of the cities from LAX that UA flies from SFO.
UA IS dropping LAX-AKL as much as you want to pretend it didn't happen
this is too easy.
It's so sad that you try so hard to make me look bad and all you succeed at doing is making my point.
Delta makes much more money
none of which changes that AA and BA are REDUCING a whole lot more capacity than EVEN WHAT you assert at LAX.
And since you decided to use the DOT's profitability data, it shouldn't be hard for you to see that my statement that AA lost money flying both the Atlantic ($796 million) and Pacific ($182 million).
And THAT is clearly what you don't want to see posted - that AA's transatlantic and transpacific...
none of which changes that AA and BA are REDUCING a whole lot more capacity than EVEN WHAT you assert at LAX.
And since you decided to use the DOT's profitability data, it shouldn't be hard for you to see that my statement that AA lost money flying both the Atlantic ($796 million) and Pacific ($182 million).
And THAT is clearly what you don't want to see posted - that AA's transatlantic and transpacific networks don't make money and haven't for years. AA's TATL network wasn't even profitable in 2019
and back to United, Delta still made more money in Latin America in 2023 than United despite flying less capacity and having less total revenue.
Ben I think you're missing the point with PHX that the US has become far too expensive for Europeans looking for winter sun.
Indeed. I go to Thailand and Mexico now for winter sun, instead of Florida and California as I had for the previous 20 years. It’s Swiss prices in America now for most of us, and I cannot stand the nickel and dime cheek, eg on card machines trying to ask for tipping a self service payment attempt etc it just exhausts me.
A lot of interesting discussions / data points in recent days.
1) Internationally - I wonder if a lot of this is really related to how poorly American (and Delta) are positioned to Asia, and the relative lack of recovery in Asia travel due to geopolitics and other stuff. If Asia had more demand, you would see fewer attempts by American and Delta to stretch and put wide bodies over to Europe.
2) Domestically, business...
A lot of interesting discussions / data points in recent days.
1) Internationally - I wonder if a lot of this is really related to how poorly American (and Delta) are positioned to Asia, and the relative lack of recovery in Asia travel due to geopolitics and other stuff. If Asia had more demand, you would see fewer attempts by American and Delta to stretch and put wide bodies over to Europe.
2) Domestically, business travel is recovering, but still way below the pre-pandemic trend. Capacity growth seemed to be at or above pre-pandemic trends. Planes have to be filled with more leisure customers, if they are to be flown at all.
3) On the hotel side, there is less pricing power even as hotel capacity growth is minimal - as some of the post pandemic hotel demand surge has leveled out, Airbnb continues to grow, etc.
Overall - the next twelve months or so may be a great time to travel from a pricing perspective
You clearly don't understand how profitable businesses are supposed to work.
Size in and of itself means nothing.
Delta makes more money on its international operation than United including per seat mile over the Pacific.
United throws a lot of capacity into the market on which it earns less profit than DL.
AA doesn't make money flying the Atlantic or Pacific.
DL is growing its Pacific network and elsewhere because they can fly to the...
You clearly don't understand how profitable businesses are supposed to work.
Size in and of itself means nothing.
Delta makes more money on its international operation than United including per seat mile over the Pacific.
United throws a lot of capacity into the market on which it earns less profit than DL.
AA doesn't make money flying the Atlantic or Pacific.
DL is growing its Pacific network and elsewhere because they can fly to the same markets with less capacity and make more money.
Delta has a SMALLER international network than UA but it achieves what for-profit companies are supposed to do - which is maximize profits for the owners.
AA is cutting routes because it can't make money and has to cut the weakest routes.
The 777W refurb is requiring flights to be cut but I can assure you that AA is not cutting flights that would have made money. TO believe otherwise is beyond naive.
Come on - when did I make any judgment about profitability in my post? I was just talking about demand and pricing. It seems undeniably true that:
1) Asia is well below plan for most airlines versus pre-pandemic
2) Widebodies, if they are flying, need to go somewhere
3) Airlines have tried a number of routes across the Atlantic and Pacific, only to cut them
4) All of this experimentation will lead...
Come on - when did I make any judgment about profitability in my post? I was just talking about demand and pricing. It seems undeniably true that:
1) Asia is well below plan for most airlines versus pre-pandemic
2) Widebodies, if they are flying, need to go somewhere
3) Airlines have tried a number of routes across the Atlantic and Pacific, only to cut them
4) All of this experimentation will lead to pricing and reward opportunities for passengers (I am already seeing them and booking them)
Yes, customers benefit when companies make bad decisions, but they are not sustainable. So, enjoy the flights that don’t make money, but ultimately companies have to cut or they go out of business. It is just basic economics. Every airline has a certain amount of low margin flying, and some even have unprofitable flying, but it has to be limited and American has clearly not cut deep enough to get its transatlantic and transpacific network back to profitability
"1) Internationally - I wonder if a lot of this is really related to how poorly American (and Delta) are positioned to Asia, and the relative lack of recovery in Asia travel due to geopolitics and other stuff. If Asia had more demand, you would see fewer attempts by American and Delta to stretch and put wide bodies over to Europe."
This is more to do w/ Delta prioritizing its stronger hold on the East...
"1) Internationally - I wonder if a lot of this is really related to how poorly American (and Delta) are positioned to Asia, and the relative lack of recovery in Asia travel due to geopolitics and other stuff. If Asia had more demand, you would see fewer attempts by American and Delta to stretch and put wide bodies over to Europe."
This is more to do w/ Delta prioritizing its stronger hold on the East Coast (BOS, JFK, ATL, sorta DTW) and its Europe JV. Delta is weak on the West Coast (SEA's poor performance and a very competitive LAX) that translates to poor Asia-Pacific growth.
Delta is probably also avoiding making any big moves until the KE/OZ merger is closed.
Asia demand is not weak, the Asian carriers have had record profits, US carriers other than UA are poorly positioned to take advantage of Asia traffic.
Ummm . . . has anyone considered the fact that AA is pulling the 773s out of service this winter for *the* retrofit? AA will simply have fewer in service and something's gotta give. But, maybe I'm wrong.
that would be true if AA didn't lose money flying both the Atlantic and Pacific in 2023 and is on course for a similar trend this year.
It is possible for both to be true.
@Lee, but that involve Timmy being unless to understand nuance, something which he has repeatedly shown he can’t.
*unable* to understand… don’t want Timmy to flip out.
AA's excuse about LAX-MIA losing Flagship was driven by the fact JetBlue withdrew from that route with Mint. AA can definitely make LAX-MIA profitable with Flagship product on that route, given they are both hubs.
I’m based in the west coast and have flown PHX-LHR and LHR-PHX economy several times in winter. I choose this flight because it’s never full and I always get a row of 4 seats so I can travel in Dollar Tree Business Class. Award sets are also always available.
Yes. this is significant because LHR is the one airport in Europe where AA should be able to make money because of its JV with British Airways.
Yet, there is clear overcapacity as evidenced by UA's inability to make BOS-LHR work and DL's decision to free up the A330-900 it used on LAX-LHR by turning that flight over to VS.
DL is always the first airline to indicate economic issues which is why their comments...
Yes. this is significant because LHR is the one airport in Europe where AA should be able to make money because of its JV with British Airways.
Yet, there is clear overcapacity as evidenced by UA's inability to make BOS-LHR work and DL's decision to free up the A330-900 it used on LAX-LHR by turning that flight over to VS.
DL is always the first airline to indicate economic issues which is why their comments this week and their decision about LHR is significant.
AA is in far less position to fly unprofitable flights than it once was and that will only get worse when they finally settle their flight attendant contract.
Ironically Scott Kirby was one of the biggest proponents of "strategically necessary" flying when he was at AA and that included most of AA's LAX-Asia and S. America flying that got pulled when he left for UA - where he is doing the same thing.
UA increased its LAX-LHR flying when DL re-entered the market because UA desperately is trying to stop any other carrier from strengthening its position on the west coast and esp. CA. UA flooded the Asia/Pacific region with capacity last winter, CF covered the LF results for UA, and UA managed to lose money flying the Pacific while DL made money.
DL decided, as it usually does, that it is not going to harm itself to enter new markets or stay in markets where other competitors make irrational decisions.
AA, DL and UA have similar enough costs that if a market doesn't work for one, it likely doesn't for others.
AA was the first of AA and UA - the two entrenched carriers in LAX-LHR to blink.
DL has grown Asia/Pacific outside of LAX including DTW-PVG, the only US carrier China service that originates outside of the west coast but is starting LAX-PVG this fall. DL added SEA-TPE and says it is doing well, in line with what UA says it sees with SFO-TPE.
DL also says it intends to fly to MEL, certainly from LAX, while UA pulled out of LAX-AKL.
There is money to be made on Asia-Pacific routes if all carriers act rationally which UA has not done and it has only hurt UA.
DL says its Asia-Pacific is doing well enough that it is not only profitable but covers the cost of capital which means they can financially justify putting brand new high efficiency aircraft on new routes.
UA's domination of the Pacific is going to be eroded by Delta and UA will only harm itself by trying to keep Delta out.
AA has to make money; the weakest links will fall.
It is certain there will be other routes that are cut or that were cut under the guise of refurbishing the 777Ws but will not come back next winter.
The over capacity that Delta talked about is not just limited to domestic markets and with ULCCs.
Tim Dunn to the rescue with useless facts about Delta that have nothing to do with a winter reduction in schedule to AA’s LHR network! SHOCKER! I bet AA deploys them to South America where it continues to clean Delta’s clock! Funny how you never bring that up! It’s only TPAC stuff.
to no surprise, the usual suspects meltdown when I bring the real picture into focus.
Ben specifically noted DL's decision to turn LAX-LHR #3 over to VS.
VS may not be consistently profitable but it doesn't drag down DL's performance as evidenced by DL's much higher profits.
There is overcapacity in international markets including by UA which has made some pretty boneheaded and well-documented attempts to flush competitors out of the market which only hurt...
to no surprise, the usual suspects meltdown when I bring the real picture into focus.
Ben specifically noted DL's decision to turn LAX-LHR #3 over to VS.
VS may not be consistently profitable but it doesn't drag down DL's performance as evidenced by DL's much higher profits.
There is overcapacity in international markets including by UA which has made some pretty boneheaded and well-documented attempts to flush competitors out of the market which only hurt UA.
AA cannot afford to sustain losses as it once did. There will be more and more weak stuff cut with Kirby well off the picture at AA and his compulsive focus on size and market share over profits. Other AA execs are still undoing the damage and mentality that Kirby brought to AA's network decisions and that same mindset explains why UA underperforms DL in international markets.
As hard as it is to hear, these are the truths.
There he goes again…. Types out paragraphs that dance around the fact:
-This article has absolutely nothing to do with Delta.
Holy crap…. Does Timmy have this stuff queued up, ready to go? His comment is longer than the original post. Get a life Tim.
TIM DUNN.
YOUR A FOOL.
THE REASON FOR THE REDUCTION?
PLANES GETTING NEW AND IMPROVED INTERIORS.
AA AIRCRAFT IS THE YOUNGEST IN THE INDUSTRY.
UNLIKE DELTAS OLD 717,757,767.
SOME ARE OLD TWA/AA AIRCRAFT AA REPLACED WITH MODERN AIRCRAFT.
My brother in christ Virgin Atlantic loses a **** ton of money every year!
Not going to bother reading this crap. Completely unrelated speculation about Delta in a topic that has nothing to do with them. Move on Tim.
Can you please point me to where it’s been shown that UA is losing money across the Pacific? Load factors do not equal yields…
The US DOT publishes profitability data by global region - domestic, transatlantic, transpacific, Latin - which comes straight from carrier filings
AA didn't make money flying the Atlantic or Pacific in 2023 but did make more in Latin America than it lost across the ATL and Pacific to post a small international profit.
UA made money in all regions - but half of what DL made across the Atlantic and about half of DL PER...
The US DOT publishes profitability data by global region - domestic, transatlantic, transpacific, Latin - which comes straight from carrier filings
AA didn't make money flying the Atlantic or Pacific in 2023 but did make more in Latin America than it lost across the ATL and Pacific to post a small international profit.
UA made money in all regions - but half of what DL made across the Atlantic and about half of DL PER SEAT MILE across the Pacific. Latin was similar for the two.
AA has to turn its international operation around. DL is in the position to grow international and they will. They are on the verge of firming up the 20 options they got with the A350-1000 order; likely to be A330-900s to continue deliveries of the A339 after next year when current deliveries run out.
UA has too many widebody airplanes to profitably deploy year round which is why they lose money in the winter regardless of where they put those aircraft.
Tim, you avoided the question I posed about Virgin Atlantic's losses
Ooooh
Except that Premium Airline invested a ton of money in Seattle and Alaska completely dominates them domestically there and there are plenty of international options in Seattle that don’t involve Delta or SkyTeam. Delta barely makes a profit in Seattle. But keep on shilling for Delta.
Delta is making inroads in Seattle. Locals, fiercely loyal to Alaska, are beginning to turn as Alaska becomes more and more like American. Alaska is no longer a niche airline. The OneWorld alliance has forced Alaska for become like American and the locals aren’t here for it. It will be interesting to see how 2024 plays out for both Delta and Alaska. Alaska will often be 15-50% higher on the same route than Delta, and...
Delta is making inroads in Seattle. Locals, fiercely loyal to Alaska, are beginning to turn as Alaska becomes more and more like American. Alaska is no longer a niche airline. The OneWorld alliance has forced Alaska for become like American and the locals aren’t here for it. It will be interesting to see how 2024 plays out for both Delta and Alaska. Alaska will often be 15-50% higher on the same route than Delta, and Alaska thinks people will just blindly choose them.
The shine is wearing off the penny in Seattle for Alaska….
Funny since the yield premium you mention for Alaska means locals are actually choosing Alaska over delta since delta is having to discount their fare to get traffic
Delta is very weak in SEA. AS has maintained, if not grown its lead over DL.
DL does have profitable international and hub routes, but the fact that it's spent a decade building up SEA and only has 4 TPAC routes to show for it says everything. Everything else it does in SEA bleeds money.
I don't believe AA has ever been three daily flights LAX-LHR during the winter.
Historically, AA has mostly been a double daily LAX-LHR for the past few years. The third flight was a more recent addition that quite frankly is not as popular as the earlier flights.
PHX-LHR only requires one flight a day, and BA can handle this just fine. AA 777 capacity is a bit much...also AA's PHX flight was fairly knew starting up around 2022? ish.
The PHX analysis is wrong. Its the 5th largest city in the United States. 10th largest MSA. I was on this flight several weeks ago and getting close to approach, the list of cities that passengers were connecting to was very long. This flight arrives 3.5 hours before the BA flight, making onward connections more palatable. City can definitely handle two flights daily. And just got AF commitment for year-round continental service. The demand is there, AA is being AA.
If the list of connections was long, that means demand for LHR-PHX is NOT there...it means people are using PHX as a connection point. During the off season, AA may not need to use PHX as a connection point, especially with ORD, CLT and DFW available.
Yes, in the summer more people are connecting then staying in the heat. However, the article references this being a winter cut, when demand to PHX is greatest. There is year-round demand for this route.
Have to agree with Hammerofguam. I took this flight back at the end of January and it was quite full. With how quickly Phoenix's population is growing, I'm surprised to see this.
Phoenix is filled with conservative retirees. It’s why there are so few companies there. Basically no one who lives in Phoenix meaningfully contributes to the economy. These aren’t people regularly flying in the premium cabins to Europe. That’s what you Phoenix pushers don’t get about why no one wants to fly there.
And hopefully the stupid and greedy mileage earn changes that have been made since Covid bite all the airlines in the proverbial.